JOHANNESBURG | It’s a power play with Shakespearean overtones — but whether it ends in tragedy or farce is yet to be determined.
Center stage, for now, is the Lear-like South African President Jacob Zuma, clinging to power as many of his erstwhile courtiers calculate the best time to desert him. Waiting in the wings is the former Zuma ally and designated heir apparent Cyril Ramaphosa, who many in the troubled ruling African National Congress hope will ascend to the throne long before South Africans held to the polls again sometime next year.
The incumbent boasts little formal education and often stumbles over his words. The challenger is a former trade union official and self-made billionaire who favors expensive suits and speaks easily without notes. At the recent World Economic Forum in tony Davos, Switzerland, it was the suave Mr. Ramaphosa, now the deputy president, who made the case for investing in South Africa, while the polarizing Mr. Zuma stayed home.
The soap opera involving two leading men has transfixed the country and brought a new level of dysfunction to the ANC, which has dominated South Africa’s politics since it led the charge under Nelson Mandela to dismantle the apartheid system more than two decades ago.
Talk radio, TV pundits and newspaper cartoonists have had a field day with what is seen as a fight to the death between Mr. Zuma and Mr. Ramaphosa, whose election in December to head the ANC precipitated the power struggle.
Publicly, Mr. Ramaphosa has called for his supporters to be patient, saying the matter would soon be resolved “in the interests of the country and its people.”
“I am aware that uncertainty surrounding the position of the head of state and government is a cause for concern among many South Africans,” Mr. Ramaphosa said late Wednesday as he emerged from talks on the government’s future. “However, I am certain that the process we have now embarked on will achieve an outcome that not only addresses these concerns, but also unites our people around the tasks that all of us must undertake to build our country.”
If the president does not resign, opposition parties have pledged to seek a no-confidence vote in parliament.
Mr. Zuma, 75, is nominally set to step down when his second five-year term ends at the end of this year, with his rival then leading the ANC into 2019 elections. But a steady stream of scandals alleging theft, corruption and abuse of power has given him the worst poll numbers of any leader in decades, leading many in the ANC to conclude he should depart the stage right now to preserve the party’s electoral chances. But with Mr. Zuma resisting, lawmakers and officials face a delicate dilemma on how hard to push.
There have been few details leaking from hastily arranged talks on the party’s future this week, but Mr. Zuma’s State of the Union address for Thursday was scrubbed and the government announced that an awards ceremony Saturday in Cape Town where Mr. Zuma was scheduled to preside had been canceled.
Since Mr. Zuma came to power in 2008, the ANC has seen a steady erosion of its vote, losing seats in Parliament and losing control of key cities including Johannesburg and the capital, Pretoria.
Adding to the drama, some party insiders are openly speculating about a so-called “Nixon Option,” where the president would step down and his successor — almost certainly Mr. Ramaphosa — would grant an unconditional pardon, following the precedent President Gerald Ford set with Richard Nixon in 1974.
The Democratic Alliance, the country’s main opposition party, warned the ANC against cutting such a deal.
“We cannot condone or allow Zuma to escape accountability for breaking his oath of office and putting his friends and family above the best interests of the people of South Africa,” the opposition party said in a statement Thursday.
South African press outlets reported Thursday Mr. Ramaphosa denied he was considering an immunity deal, but that hasn’t cooled the speculation about the scenario.
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