President Trump plans to embark on the most aggressive midterm campaign schedule in recent presidential history. He has scheduled more than 40 days on the road before the November elections in a fight to keep Republicans in control of Congress.
The president ordered his team to draw up the grueling travel schedule because he is determined to buck historical trends and rack up wins to keep Republicans in charge of the House, expand their majority in the Senate and put more Republican governors in statehouses, according to a person familiar with Mr. Trump’s thinking.
“The president has put his party in the best position possible to defy odds and defy the pollsters and pundits just like he did in November of 2016,” said the person, who spoke to reporters on the condition of anonymity.
Over the next six weeks, the president plans to hold at least eight rallies and at least 16 fundraisers in as many as 15 states.
The September schedule includes likely stops in North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Kentucky and Tennessee. Other stops may be added.
Mr. Trump’s plan to hit the road over a month from Aug. 1 to Nov. 6 exceeds President Obama’s 36 campaign days before the 2012 midterms and roughly 22 days before the 2014 midterms.
President George W. Bush campaigned outside Washington for about 33 days for both of the midterm elections during his tenure.
The Trump political team says the president is charging up his base — including blue-collar voters who crossed over to the Republican Party and Americans who were not politically active before Mr. Trump entered the arena — to support Republican candidates across the country.
He has proved to be a powerful ally to his chosen candidates. Of the 49 candidates Mr. Trump has endorsed in primaries or special elections, only four have lost.
Democrats counter that the electorate will lean toward the left as their base pushes back against the Trump agenda. They predict a “blue wave” will sweep them into power in Congress, likely opening the door to a presidential impeachment vote that the far left has been clamoring for.
Democratic strategist Christy Setzer said the all-out effort by Mr. Trump shows he is worried about losing Congress.
“It says that for all his boasting of a ’red wave,’ the president knows he’s on very shaky ground this November and that only an extremely aggressive effort — all campaigning, no golfing — will bring out his base. Of course, his campaign visits will also remind Democrats and independents how important it is to make it to the polls as well,” she said.
History and Washington analysts give the advantage to Democrats.
The president’s party has lost seats in all but two midterm elections since the Civil War. The opposing party averages a pickup of 32 House seats and two Senate seats.
Although Republicans hold a slim two-seat majority in the Senate, most of the battleground races are for Democrat-held seats and in states that Mr. Trump won in 2016. The landscape gives him a shot at expanding the Republican majority in the upper chamber.
Still, most prognosticators give the Republicans only a slightly better than 50-50 chance of keeping the majority.
The toughest battle will be for the House, where Democrats need to flip 23 seats to seize the speaker’s gavel.
Political economists at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com give Democrats a 3 in 4 chance of capturing the House.
Nathan L. Gonzales’ Inside Elections predicted that the most likely outcome in the House race would be Democrats gaining 22 to 32 seats, with larger gains possible.
Aiming to prove all of them wrong, Mr. Trump has organized a flexible schedule for campaign rallies and fundraisers that will be adjusted as individual races develop.
The president’s pull with his base is evident in his job approval ratings. His approval rating among Republicans has been at or near 90 percent in recent Gallup polls. It is holding in the 30 percent range among independents and is less than 10 percent among Democratic voters.
“His party is unified. There is no way to overstate the importance of party unity as we head into an election cycle,” said the Trump insider who briefed reporters.
• S.A. Miller can be reached at smiller@washingtontimes.com.
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