On Sept. 12, 2007, the New York Mets were leading the National League East by seven games.
But the Mets faltered mightily down the stretch, and the Philadelphia Phillies won the division by one game over New York.
The 2018 Washington Nationals have more time on their side than the Phillies did 11 years ago.
But the two-time defending East champs are also going to need a team ahead of them — and maybe two — to slip if they are going to make the playoffs.
The third-place Nationals entered Tuesday’s game at St. Louis seven back of the first-place Phillies and six behind the second-place Atlanta Braves.
The Nationals (60-59 through Monday) are slated to play regular-season game No. 121 on Wednesday in St. Louis against the Cardinals and No. 122 on Thursday. That means roughly one quarter of the 162-game season remains.
Here are five things that need to go right for the Nationals in the closing weeks to even have a chance of making the playoffs:
• Strasburg at full strength: Not only do the Nationals need Stephen Strasburg back, they need him to pitch close to his level at the end of the 2017 season, when he was one of the best in the majors.
Strasburg has been on the disabled list July 25 with a cervical nerve impingement. This season, he is 6-7 with an ERA of 3.90 in 14 starts, after winning 15 games last season and posting an ERA of 2.52.
He had an 0.86 ERA in his 10 starts after the All-Star break last season, one of the best marks in history.
But Strasburg has made more than 30 starts just once in his career — 34 in 2014.
• Doolittle must return — and excel: The Nationals’ bullpen is in flux, and it became a three-ring circus after All-Star Sean Doolittle went on the disabled list July 10 with left toe inflammation.
Before, he had 22 saves in 35 games and was 3-2 with a 1.45 ERA.
Doolittle’s replacement, Kelvin Herrera, went on the disabled list Aug. 8 with right rotator cuff impingement.
Manager Dave Martinez then named Ryan Madson his closer, and Madson gave up a grand slam in the last of the ninth Sunday in Chicago as the Cubs won 4-3. Adding injury to insult, Madson was put on the 10-day DL on Tuesday with a back injury.
Koda Glover came on in the last of the ninth Monday and gave up a walkoff homer to Paul DeJong as the Cardinals beat the Nationals 7-6.
• Phillies and Braves falter: Hardly anyone picked the Phillies or Braves to win the National League East this season.
Both teams have good, young players but most felt 2019 would be the season for them to contend.
The Phillies and Braves were both aggressive at the trade deadline, while the Nationals mostly stood pat. That could end up burning Washington.
Some experts expect the Phillies or Braves to crumble under pressure. But the season is near the three-quarter mark and it has yet to happen. Maybe it won’t.
• Nats need arms: The non-waiver trade deadline was July 31, but it is not too late for Washington general manager Mike Rizzo to add some pitchers.
The Phillies helped themselves last week when they made a trade for Marlins first baseman Justin Bour, a former George Mason University standout.
The Nationals desperately need help in the bullpen, and perhaps in the starting rotation, if Strasburg doesn’t return soon. Tommy Milone, filling in for Strasburg, has a 5.24 ERA in four starts.
One possible aid for the bullpen could be Jefry Rodriguez, who fanned 11 in six innings for Triple-A Syracuse on Sunday.
Before Tuesday’s game the Nationals called up relievers Tim Collins and Trevor Gott from Syracuse and sent lefty reliever Sammy Solis to Triple-A.
The Nationals are 11-21 in one-run games through Monday.
• Washington has to play to level of opponents: Washington has not won a series on the road against a team with a winning record since May at Arizona. The Nats were one strike away from doing so Sunday, but the Cubs’ David Bote hit a walkoff grand slam.
Can the Nationals mount a comeback?
“Why not? It has happened before in baseball. You can’t count it out,” Nationals pitcher Gio Gonzalez said last week. “I think we are a team that can do something extraordinary like that.”
Washington begins a three-game series at home Friday against the lowly Marlins with Max Scherzer pitching.
The Nationals need to start making up ground quickly.
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