- The Washington Times - Tuesday, April 3, 2018

President Trump insisted Tuesday that he wants U.S. troops out of Syria and will decide on a withdrawal “very quickly,” putting him at odds with advisers who say the job of defeating the Islamic State terrorist group isn’t finished and with U.S. allies that fear a quick withdrawal would hand Syria, Iran and Russia a strategic victory in the region.

The Pentagon has deployed about 2,000 troops in Syria in the fight against the Islamic State, a mission that the president said is “almost completed.” They are fighting alongside Kurdish and Arab allies while giving Washington key leverage in the diplomatic endgame of the brutal 7-year-old Syrian civil war.

The Syrian regime has scored major battlefield gains in recent months, including the near-complete ouster of rebel and Islamist groups around the capital of Damascus. Russia and Iran have provided critical military aid to the government of President Bashar Assad to help turn the tide of battle.

“It’s time,” Mr. Trump said at a White House press conference with the visiting leaders of the three Baltic nations. “Sometimes it’s time to come back home, and we’re thinking about that very seriously.”

Mr. Trump suggested that allies such as Saudi Arabia, which fiercely oppose Mr. Assad and have lobbied the U.S. to stay in the fight, could help foot the bill for the American deployment.

“We’ve had a tremendous military success against ISIS,” the president said. “I want to get out, I want to bring our troops back home. I want to start rebuilding our nation.”

Virtually at the same time Mr. Trump was speaking at the White House, Army Gen. Joseph Votel, who leads U.S. forces in the Middle East as the head of Central Command, was telling a Washington think tank that the threat from the Islamic State, while diminished, “is not gone.”

Speaking at a forum at the U.S. Institute for Peace, Gen. Votel said the U.S. mission against Islamic State in Syria has grown more complicated as the American-led coalition mops up remnants of the terrorist group, which is still based in the country. As the imminent threat from Islamic State diminishes, “you begin to see the underlying challenges in Syria … come to the forefront.”

The last territorial base in Syria for Islamic State is in the eastern province of Deir el-Zour, where momentum by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces has stalled in recent weeks.

Power vacuum

Many in the Pentagon and in private think tanks fear Iran, Turkey and other regional powers will rush to fill the power vacuum if Islamic State is ousted and the U.S. withdraws too quickly. Gen. Votel estimated that the U.S. and its allies have retaken more than 98 percent of the territory that Islamic State once claimed for its “caliphate” in Syria and neighboring Iraq.

Brett McGurk, the special U.S. envoy for the global coalition against Islamic State, suggested that the fight against Islamic State was far from complete. He said the terrorist group is still able to launch guerrilla attacks even though it has lost its territorial base.

“We are in Syria to fight ISIS. That is our mission, and our mission isn’t over, and we are going to complete that mission,” Mr. McGurk said.

Some reports say the Pentagon is considering a plan to send more U.S. troops into northern Syria to help with stabilization efforts, even as Mr. Trump talks of a drawdown.

Gen. Votel and Mr. McGurk did not say whether a continued U.S. military presence in Syria would be a prerequisite for Islamic State’s complete defeat.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has emerged as a key ally of Mr. Trump in the region, went public with his own opposition to a U.S. withdrawal from Syria just days after meeting Mr. Trump at the White House. Riyadh fears an abrupt withdrawal would clear the way for Iran, its main regional rival, to complete its long-sought “Shiite corridor” linking its anti-Saudi allies in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

“If you take those [U.S.] troops out from east Syria, you will lose that checkpoint,” the prince told Time magazine in an interview this week as he continued a lengthy U.S. tour. “And this corridor could create a lot of things in the region.”

“We believe American troops should stay for at least the mid term, if not the long term,” he said.

Israel, another strong U.S. ally, is making many of the same points more quietly, fearing an Assad victory will bring Hezbollah and Iranian-linked forces right to its borders.

By coincidence, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will be in Ankara on Wednesday for talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the future of Syria is expected to be a top topic of conversation. The three governments are sponsoring a series of peace talks for Syria in the Kazakh capital of Astana.

Despite the fluid situation and swirling diplomacy in the region, Mr. Trump’s re-examination of U.S. involvement in the conflict is not a surprise, Mr. McGurk said.

“The president has made clear that everything we are doing is going to be under review,” Mr. McGurk said. The effort by the White House to assess the Syria mission “is not impacting any actions we are taking in the field.”

Gen. Votel said other regional challenges, such as Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria to attack U.S.-allied Kurdish groups, were slowing the U.S. operation.

“I think the hard part is still in front of us,” he said. “And that is stabilizing these areas, consolidating our gains, getting people back into their homes. There is a military role in this, certainly in the stabilization phase.”

Iraqi fears

Talk of an abrupt American pullout is drawing concern from other U.S. allies in the region. Iraqi Ambassador to the U.S. Fareed Yasseen said at the U.S. Institute for Peace forum that U.S. troops create a stabilizing force along the troubled Iraq-Syria border.

“We still suffer from Syria,” Mr. Yasseen said. “Still, to this day, we have insurgents or jihadists crossing the border into Iraq and wreaking havoc. So, as an operational first step, what we need to do is secure the border.

“For the foreseeable future, we need that help,” he added.

Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman, the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government’s representative to Washington, said a U.S. withdrawal “would send a frightening message” to leaders of all factions in Iraq, who are on the cusp of key parliamentary elections slated for later this year. The apparent disconnect between Mr. Trump and his military team is only adding to the anxiety, she said.

“I know many Americans are sick and tired of the whole story of Iraq and Afghanistan, and soon they’ll be tired of Syria, but we need you,” Ms. Rahman said. “We need you to stay the course in Iraq and to help our society to recover from the most recent trauma that we’ve faced.”

But Mr. Trump resurrected his campaign trail arguments that the U.S. has spent about $7 trillion in the Middle East since the 9/11 terrorist attacks — a figure that has been challenged — on wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.

“Think of it, $7 trillion over a 17-year period, we have nothing except death and destruction,” Mr. Trump said. “It’s very costly for our country. It helps other countries a hell of a lot more than it helps us.”

But he added that he will make his decision in consultation with allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia.

Defense Secretary James N. Mattis has argued in favor of keeping U.S. troops in Syria, as did Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson, who has since been fired by the president. Mr. Tillerson floated a five-point plan for the U.S. mission in Syria, one that critics said represented a virtually unlimited American diplomatic and military presence in the country.

At a speech in Ohio last week, Mr. Trump surprised some of his advisers by coming out for a speedy withdrawal from Syria.

“We’ll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon,” the president said. “Let the other people take care of it now.”

• Dave Boyer can be reached at dboyer@washingtontimes.com.

• Carlo Muñoz can be reached at cmunoz@washingtontimes.com.

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