Capitals playoff scenarios: Washington can still draw one of five teams in first round

The Washington Capitals clinched the Metropolitan Division Sunday when they beat the rival Pittsburgh Penguins in regulation, 3-1. Depending on how the final week of the regular season goes, Washington can draw any one of five possible teams in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Capitals have two games left to play, so they can’t catch up to a pair of Atlantic Division titans, the Boston Bruins (110 points) or Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points), for the top seed in the conference. That means the Capitals will draw the first wild card team in the first round — which would be the Philadelphia Flyers if the season had ended Monday night.

Here are the Metro standings as of Tuesday morning:

1. Washington, 103 points, 80 games played.
2. Pittsburgh, 96 points, 80 games played.
3. Columbus, 94 points, 79 games played.
4. (WC1) Philadelphia, 94 points, 79 games played.
5. (WC2) New Jersey, 93 points, 79 games played.

Also in the mix for an Eastern Conference wild card spot: the Atlantic’s Florida Panthers, who have 88 points and four games left to play.

It’s mathematically possible, but Florida has the longest shot to play Washington. The Panthers would have to win out to max out at 96 points, and two teams out of Columbus, Philadelphia and New Jersey would have to falter enough to stay behind 96.

But Florida has a grueling final week, with three of its four games coming against the two best teams in hockey: Boston twice and Nashville once. The Panthers have a 12 percent chance to even make the postseason, according to hockey-reference.com. They could be out of contention in a few days’ time.

Could Pittsburgh really face Washington in the first round rather than the second? Don’t count it out. The Penguins only have two games left to secure one of the Metro’s top three spots, but if they lose both, two teams easily could pass them — especially since they face Columbus on the road Thursday.

The Blue Jackets would move into a tie with the Penguins with a regulation win in Ohio on Thursday. As it stands today, Columbus beats Philadelphia in a tiebreaker because the Jackets have more regulation and overtime wins (excluding shootout wins) than the Flyers.

The Devils only have to win two of their final three games to clinch a playoff berth, or win one and have Florida lose one. They can max out at 99 points, but that would include beating the Capitals in Washington in both teams’ regular season finale Saturday. With three teams ahead in the standings, New Jersey is more likely destined for a wild card spot.

Count Jersey and Philadelphia as the Capitals’ most likely first-round matchups. But Columbus will be firmly in the mix if it fails to earn a standings point against Pittsburgh. Just like the Capitals and Panthers, the Jackets also must face the Predators, the Presidents’ Trophy favorites, before the regular season is over.