OPINION:
North Korea will not agree to complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of its nuclear weapons programs. Kim Jong-un has accomplished what his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, and his father, Kim Jong-il, were unable to accomplish: an arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles capable of reaching as far as the United States. For North Koreans, this is their ultimate nuclear deterrent. In their minds, this ensures regime survival, a concern they have, convinced that the U.S. and South Korea want a different regime in the North.
Twenty-five years of negotiations have failed to stop North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. And since Kim Jong-un came to power almost six years ago, North Korea has made impressive progress with its nuclear and missile programs. The reported assessment is that they could have 40 or more nuclear weapons and are capable of miniaturizing them. The Sept. 3 nuclear test reportedly could have been a hydrogen bomb. Equally impressive has been their progress with missiles, successfully launching intermediate and intercontinental ballistic missiles, with ranges from 4,000 to 10,000 kilometers, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. All indications are that North Korea will continue to launch mid- and long-range missiles and conduct additional nuclear tests.
The international community has responded with sanctions on North Korea imposed by the United Nations. These sanctions are powerful. The recent U.S. executive order on North Korea is even more potent. Unfortunately, however, these sanctions, while necessary, will not get North Korea to halt its nuclear and missile programs. China’s enforcement of these sanctions will further isolate and deny North Korea the resources it needs to sustain it nuclear and missile programs. While admirable and necessary, North Korea will persist, despite China’s actions.
It’s clear that we’re pursuing one of the two viable, nonkinetic options for dealing with a belligerent North Korea. Greater sanctions, more missile defense deployments and enhanced joint military exercises with South Korea, ideally to also include Japan, are all necessary. And ideally, economic sanctions and military deterrence eventually will convince Mr. Kim that until North Korea agrees to denuclearization, in return for security assurances and more normal international relations, greater international pressure will be imposed on North Korea.
The other option available to North Korea is returning to discussions that could eventual develop into formal negotiations. By halting its missile launches and nuclear tests, and entering into discussions dealing with its security concerns and interest in a peace treaty and eventual normal relations with the U.S., sanctions relief and less-intensive joint military exercises then become a reality.
Our goal, however, is complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear programs. Halting these programs is the first and necessary step. Indeed, achieving this goal may take years, but in the process there’s a halt to all nuclear tests, missile launches and the production of fissile material. With that is the lowering of tension and better ensuring that we do not stumble into conflict on the Korean Peninsula through error or miscalculation.
We should and must pursue our current policy of deterrence and containment, given the escalation of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. And if North Korea continues on this escalatory path, greater deterrence capabilities should be introduced, with even more stringent sanctions and enforced implementation. However, if we want to further explore the negotiations option, very mindful of the 25 years of failed negotiations, then we have to offer North Korea an “off ramp.” We have to be willing to sit down with the North to discuss all these issues and, in the process, get North Korea to immediately return the three Americans detained in North Korea, a necessary confidence-building gesture. Indeed, if North Koreans want a normal relationship with the United States, which is what they have been saying for many years, and if they know the U.S. is adamant in saying they will never be accepted as a nuclear weapons state, then it would appear prudent to offer Kim Jong-un this off-ramp, which potentially could lead to a peaceful resolution of the nuclear issue with North Korea. This may take years, but it will be worth it.
• Joseph R. DeTrani is the former special envoy for negotiations with North Korea.
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