Half the public will blame President Trump and Republicans if Obamacare enrollment dips this year, according to a nonpartisan poll that says more Americans are holding the GOP responsible for the law’s fate than Democrats who crafted and passed the stumbling program.
Only 37 percent of Americans think President Obama and Democrats should be faulted if fewer people sign up for coverage during the enrollment season that lasts until mid-December, the Kaiser Family Foundation said.
Though sign-ups are off to a brisk start, analysts aren’t sure if the program can sustain that pace to make up for a much shorter enrollment period for 2018, especially since President Trump won’t advertise the program heavily before the deadline.
Fifty percent say any drop in sign-ups will mainly be due to Mr. Trump’s actions to weaken the law, according to Kaiser.
The poll underscores the political risks that Republicans face as they take steps to dismantle the Affordable Care Act on the cusp of the midterm campaign season, starting with the repeal of the law’s “individual mandate” to hold insurance or pay a tax.
Mr. Trump says Democrats who muscled the 2010 law to passage must “own” any of its problems, as consumers face rising premiums and dwindling choices in its web-based exchanges.
Yet Virginia voters, who cited health care as their No. 1 issue, opted for Democrats up and down the ballot earlier this month, and three in five Americans told Kaiser that Republicans are responsible for any problems with the health care law moving forward.
“From Day One, the Trump administration has spitefully and brazenly tried to raise Americans’ premiums and make it more difficult to enroll, and, frankly, the American people noticed,” said Henry Connelly, spokesman for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.
Many in the GOP say Democrats are misreading the political climate. They feel Republicans will only lose elections if they disappoint their base by failing to repeal and replace Mr. Obama’s signature law.
Indeed, Kaiser found a sharp divide between the parties, with three-quarters of Democrats saying Mr. Trump and the GOP should be blamed for any dip in enrollment, while a similar share of Republicans pointed the finger back at Democrats and Mr. Obama.
“So much of people’s attitudes toward health policy and these programs have to do with party. To some extent opinions are really sort of stuck in people’s partisan attitudes,” said Bianca DiJulio, associate director for public opinion and survey research at Kaiser.
Independents tilted the balance in the latest poll, saying the GOP should be held more responsible for lower enrollment than Democrats, 48 percent to 36 percent.
Nearly 1.5 million people selected an Obamacare plan on the federal HealthCare.gov website in the first two weeks of enrollment, outpacing the same period last year, though analysts say it will be difficult to increase year-to-year enrollment. This sign-up period is half as long as last year’s, and mixed signals from Washington could sap enthusiasm going forward.
Senate Republicans are targeting the individual mandate — the law’s main spur to get people into the marketplace — as part of their tax overhaul, saying it produces enough savings to offer deeper cuts to individuals and businesses since fewer people will seek taxpayer-subsidized coverage.
A majority of Americans say the mandate should be scrapped, according to Kaiser, though attitudes change when they’re warned about what might happen.
For example, 60 percent would keep the mandate if repeal prompts premium hikes averaging 10 percent, as the Congressional Budget Office has warned, because insurers fear young and healthy customers will shirk coverage.
Sen. Susan M. Collins, Maine Republican, says repealing the mandate as part of the tax overhaul is a bad idea. She crunched the numbers and says too many of her constituents would end up paying more in premiums than whatever tax cut they receive.
Yet senior Republicans insist it is a win-win, allowing middle-income people to avoid a tax for choosing to shirk insurance they don’t want, while making the GOP tax overhaul more attractive.
“We can deliver even more relief to the middle class by repealing an unpopular tax from an unworkable law,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said. “It just makes sense.”
• Tom Howell Jr. can be reached at thowell@washingtontimes.com.
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