OPINION:
Nuclear Russia and China are America’s major geopolitical adversaries and national security risks. Nevertheless, for decades we have steadily improved relations with these countries and the risk of war with them is low. Our top national security risks are unpredictable rogue states that are developing missiles to carry out a nuclear attack on America. Our foreign policy and military strategy should adjust accordingly.
Russia and China have powerful nuclear capabilities and armed forces. Nevertheless, they have been avoiding a conventional war with America and its allies because they know they would lose. Similarly, they have been avoiding a nuclear war because they do not find mutual assured destruction an acceptable outcome. They are both autocracies but they maintain a semblance of democracy. They have extensive contacts with the rest of the world and they generally behave rationally. North Korea and Iran are different.
North Korea’s brutal hereditary Communist dictatorship has close relations with very few countries. Economic mismanagement and isolation caused widespread famine and the death of hundreds of thousands a few decades ago, but the dictators did not change course. The North Korean people do not have access to outside information and they have been indoctrinated that war with America is imminent. Hatred of America has been a constant theme of the government propaganda. Opponents of the regime are imprisoned, tortured and killed, often in gruesome ways.
North Korea’s nuclear forces receive a huge share of the country’s resources. They have nuclear weapons and can deliver them on one of their 1,000 short- and intermediate-distance missiles. In one to three years they are expected to have intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that can reach the continental United States. Experts believe that North Korea has a nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapon. An EMP attack on the United States would destroy our power grid, collapse our economy and cause the death of 90 percent of the population.
Several American administrations, China, their largest trading partner, and the United Nations have tried both coercion and incentives to get North Korea to stop their nuclear program. Nothing worked. North Korea’s dictator wants to have ICBMs so he can blackmail any country in the world with a threatened nuclear attack. This is his guarantee that he will stay in power. There is a risk that, if cornered, he may try a first-strike nuclear attack, miscalculating that he may survive the reprisals.
Iran, an Islamic theocracy, is semi-isolated and has a failing economy. Opponents of the regime are treated harshly. Iran is one year away from having a nuclear weapon but under a deal with the Obama administration, it agreed to freeze its program for 10 years. Iran is estimated to have several hundred missiles capable of striking its neighbors and Europe. In three to five years they are expected to have an ICBM that could reach the United States.
Iran’s leaders also believe that nuclear weapons are a guarantee to their survival, but that’s not all: Their leaders are either Islamic clerics or devout lay people elected with the approval of the clerics. In their interpretation of Islam, it is their duty to destroy infidels. “Death to America” remains an obligatory chant at political and religious rallies in Iran. Perverted interpretations of Islam inspired many suicide bombers to kill innocent people in the belief that they will be rewarded in the afterlife. Iran is the world’s largest sponsor of terrorism and has approved of suicide bombings. There is a risk that Iranian leaders may decide on a nuclear attack on America for both military and religious reasons. To paraphrase professor Bernard Lewis, for religious fanatics, mutual assured destruction is not a deterrent; it is an inducement.
This brings us to Pakistan, an Islamic country with a large nuclear arsenal. The Taliban controls large areas of Pakistan from where they mount daring attacks, sometimes against heavily guarded government complexes. They even attacked and held an air force base that was rumored to store nuclear materials. What happens if a radical Islamic regime comes to power in Pakistan and gains control of its nukes?
Building what President Trump called “a state of the art missile defense system” should be recognized as our top national security priority. America cannot be at risk of a devastating nuclear attack from unpredictable and murderous dictators. A reliable national missile defense system could not be built today to protect against hundreds of Russian or Chinese missiles but could protect against a limited attack from Iran or North Korea. Our Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and Aegis systems are an excellent beginning but are not sufficient. We have a window of opportunity before North Korea and Iran have both the nuclear weapons and the missiles to attack the United States. The work must start now, before it is too late.
• Dan Negrea is a New York private equity investor.
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