OPINION:
Donald Trump’s unconventional course immediately puts him at a crossroads: Will he be Jimmy Carter or Ronald Reagan? President Trump, Mr. Carter and Mr. Reagan share “outsider” similarities in their elections; however, Carter and Reagan were polar opposites in their presidencies. It is clear which presidency Mr. Trump would choose to follow; it is equally clear that to do so he needs to be successful with Congress as Mr. Reagan was.
Recent Rasmussen polling found 56 percent of Americans want Mr. Trump to work with Congress (versus 32 percent disagreeing), rather than simply go it alone. Frustrating as this can sometimes be — even with Republicans controlling Congress — this is the course Mr. Trump should prefer, too.
Heady as executive orders can be, their limits are clear. They reach only so far — as the overturning Mr. Trump’s executive order on travel proves. Even when they stand, they can be undone as easily as they were made — as his overturning of President Obama’s executive orders also demonstrates.
Conducting policy through legislation contrasts sharply with the unilateral executive order route. The process takes far longer, but the results are more expansive and durable. Legislation provides a broader scope for action.
Just as legislation takes longer, it is harder to undo. It also has the potential for bipartisan support. Recently, bipartisanship has become rarer and calls for it are often viewed suspiciously by partisans on both sides. However, if legislation is bipartisan, increased political support — combined with the protection the legislative process already offers against its undoing — makes it even more enduring.
The power that successfully working with Congress affords is demonstrated by the Carter and Reagan presidencies.
Like Mr. Trump, Mr. Carter and Mr. Reagan were “outsider” candidates who successfully rode demands for change. Mr. Carter came in Watergate’s wake and America’s rejection of Richard Nixon. Four years later, the demand for change still prevailed and Mr. Reagan won.
Although outsiders, the Carter and Reagan presidencies could not have been more dissimilar.
Mr. Carter’s single term has become the modern yardstick for measuring presidential failure and Mr. Reagan’s two landslide terms have become the standard for modern success. Mr. Reagan was the “great communicator,” Mr. Carter never really connected with the American people — his lowest moment being his much-maligned July 1979 “malaise speech.”
Obviously, their most visible difference was Mr. Reagan’s 1980 defeat of Mr. Carter. However, the most substantive difference of relevance to today’s White House was success with Congress.
Mr. Carter had massive Democratic majorities in both bodies of Congress throughout his presidency. Fueled by Watergate’s fallout, Democrats controlled at least 58 Senate seats and 277 House seats during Mr. Carter’s term — Democrats have not come close to that combined 335 seats since. Yet despite immense political leverage, Mr. Carter accomplished little legislatively.
Mr. Reagan fared far better with far less. Republicans only held the Senate for Mr. Reagan’s first six years, and in those three elections, they never won more than 54 seats. They never controlled the House, winning just 192 seats — 26 seats short of a majority — in his first election.
However, Mr. Reagan racked up a string of major legislative victories during two terms. And by winning over conservative Democrats, he also shaped an enduring bipartisan legacy that could not simply be reversed — even after Democrats regained the White House, Senate and House in 1993.
Mr. Trump’s presidency is still young. Congress has not seriously begun its legislative work. It is unclear whether Mr. Trump can manage to work with Republicans, let alone Democrats. It is also unclear whether he can hold the American people as Mr. Reagan did — undoubtedly a reason for Mr. Reagan’s success with Congress.
What is clear is that Mr. Trump should certainly prefer being Mr. Reagan to Mr. Carter. Like them, he is an outsider — arguably an even greater one. While he did not win a popular majority as they did, the magnitude of his upset win enhances its quality, elevating it beyond its nominal figures.
On the crucial variable of congressional leverage, Mr. Trump starts exactly between Mr. Carter and Mr. Reagan. Republicans currently hold 52 Senate seats and 241 House seats — well below Mr. Carter’s totals, but well above Mr. Reagan’s.
Based solely on congressional numbers, it is up to Donald Trump which way he will go and that will be based on his relationship with Congress. The outcome will play out in the upcoming months which will, in turn, determine how many years his presidency will last — and more importantly — how lasting will be his presidential legacy.
• J.T. Young served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget, and as a congressional staff member.
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