The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.
The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.
The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.
Here are the state-by-state results for December:
Arkansas: The state’s overall index rose to 53.7 in December from 47.7 in November. “The Arkansas economy will continue to expand for the first half of 2017,” Goss said. “However, that growth will be below the regional and national averages. Economic slowdowns among the state’s major trading partners and a strong U.S. dollar have restrained Arkansas food exports since 2012. Since peaking of $828 million in 2012, Arkansas food exports have fallen to less than $600 million for 2016,” he said.
Iowa: The December overall index for Iowa hit 51.7, compared with 48.3 in November. “Iowa’s economy will continue to expand for 2017 with overall job gains of 5,000 for the first half of the year for a 0.6 percent annualized increase, or slightly less than the long-term average,” said Goss.
Kansas: The Kansas overall index increased to 51.1 from 44.4 in November. “Importantly, Kansas’ international sales declined by more than $2 billion since reaching its peak in 2012. This, along with weak farm income, generated overall job losses by the end of 2016,” Goss said. “I expect positive but muted economic growth for 2017, with job gains of less than 3,000 for the first half of the year, or annualized job growth of less than 0.2 percent,” he said.
Minnesota: The state’s overall index jumped to 52.3 from November’s 46.5. Minnesota ended 2016 with a growth spurt. “Based on our survey results, I expect the state to add another 15,000 jobs for the first half of 2017 for an annualized job growth of 1 percent, approximately equal to the state’s long-term average,” Goss said.
Missouri: Missouri’s overall index rose to a regional high of 57.1. That was 2 percentage points higher than November’s 55.1, also a regional high. “The Missouri economy ended 2016 on a very strong upward trend. Even with slightly softer growth for the first half of 2017, I expect the state to add another 22,000 jobs through June of this year for an annualized job growth of 1.5 percent, well above the state’s long-term average,” said Goss.
Nebraska: The state’s overall index soared to 55.3 from 45.0 in November. “Nebraska ended 2016 with positive but slow growth,” Goss said. “I expect the state to add 5,000 jobs in the first half of 2017 for an annualized job growth of 1 percent, slightly above the state’s long-term average.”
North Dakota: For the first time since April 2015, North Dakota’s overall index rose above growth neutral to hit 51.0 in December, compared with 47.6 in November. “Higher oil prices bolstered economic growth for North Dakota in the fourth quarter of 2016. Another 10 percent increase in oil prices would put the state back on a positive growth path for 2017,” he said.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma’s overall index has been below growth neutral 50.0 for seven consecutive months, but it rose in December to 48.8 - still a regional low - compared with 43.3 in November, also a regional low. “Oklahoma has yet to benefit from 2016 fourth-quarter oil price gains,” Goss said. “I expect recent increases in oil prices to underpin positive but slow growth for the first half of 2017.”
South Dakota: The state’s overall index climbed to 56.5 last month from November’s 50.2. “South Dakota ended 2016 on a very solid footing, with job and economic growth exceeding both the region and nation,” Goss said. “I expect South Dakota to add 6,000 jobs in the first half of 2017 for an annualized job growth of 2.7 percent, well above the U.S. and regional average.”
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