Republicans see major battleground in Minnesota in 2018 midterms

Minnesota held out against President Trump’s political wave last year, but political experts say it is shaping up as a major player for the 2018 elections, with an open governor’s seat, multiple House races, and now two open Senate seats giving the GOP a chance to make gains.

While Democrats generally dominate, Mr. Trump’s narrow miss — losing to Hillary Clinton by less than 2 percentage points — sparked a wave of optimism among Republicans.

Now, with the looming resignation of Democratic Sen. Al Franken creating two Senate races next year, Republicans in the state say the time is ripe to break a Democratic winning streak.

“In addition to President Trump nearly winning this state for national Republicans for the first time since Richard Nixon, we also have three of the top four congressional pick-up opportunities in the country, an open U.S. Senate seat and an open governor’s seat,” said Minnesota GOP Chair Jennifer Carnahan.

Republicans say voters are disenchanted disappointed with the Democratic Party — known as the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party in Minnesota — and are looking for other options, even in the liberal areas of the state.

“There’s a strong, united voice, of people that are no longer Democrats. They feel the Democratic Party has left them,” said state Rep. Jim Newberger. “We started doing some events in the metro in Minneapolis-St. Paul and I was expecting not to hear this and I was completely wrong. It’s the same.”

Mr. Newberger is seeking to challenge Sen. Amy Klobuchar.

But even more attention is likely to go to the race for the seat of Mr. Franken, who has announced his intention to step down in January after accusations of sexual harassment from several women.

Even as some analysts wonder whether Mr. Franken will follow through on his resignation, Gov. Mark Dayton has already picked his lieutenant governor, Tina Smith, to serve out the next year of Mr. Franken’s term, ahead of the November special election.

Senate Republicans say it’s eager to make the case that Ms. Smith is out of touch with voters.

“Minnesota’s open Senate seat provides Republicans another golden opportunity to put Democrats on defense in a cycle where they are already stretched dangerously thin,” said Michael McAdams, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

No prominent Republican has emerged to toss his hat in the ring yet, though former Gov. Tim Pawlenty first said he was looking at the race, but days later said he has no plans to run.

Still, Democrats say they expect a serious challenge for the spot.

“I think this is going to be a very competitive seat,” said Dan McGrath, executive director of TakeAction Minnesota, a liberal advocacy group, when discussing Mr. Franken’s seat. “We were already anticipating an open governor’s race that’s highly competitive.”

Mr. Dayton is finishing up his second term as governor and isn’t seeking another one.

The House races are where Republicans had originally expected to make their greatest gains in the state, capitalizing on several so-called “pivot counties” — areas that went for Mr. Obama in 2012 and flipped to Mr. Trump in 2016.

Liberal activists said the Trump effect on politics makes it unlikely the GOP will make gains in Minnesota.

“Any thought people had a year ago that Republicans would expand congressionally, I suspect that’s on halt,” said Javier Morillo-Alicea, president of the SEIU Local 26, and liberal activist. “They’re going to be on defense.”