OPINION:
Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, and Jason Greenblatt, formerly one of the president’s real estate lawyers, are pursuing what the president calls the “ultimate deal,” a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. We should wish them luck because they’re going to need it.
It is the best of times and the worst of times to make such a deal. It’s best because of Iran’s actions, the Palestinians’ increasing alignment with Iran and President Trump’s actions.
It’s the worst because of Mr. Trump’s other actions.
The president’s announcement that America is recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the U.S. embassy there is more than meeting one of Mr. Trump’s campaign promises. It is a powerful move that signifies the reduced influence of Palestinians — and many Arab and European allies — on U.S. policy toward Israel. The announcement reveals that many long-held assumptions about Middle Eastern affairs are no longer valid.
In meetings with Middle Eastern leaders over the past few months, Messrs. Kushner and Greenblatt have learned much, some of it entirely wrong. Mr. Kushner, who is thirty-six, has visited Saudi Arabia three times this year and has apparently established a close relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is four years his junior.
Unfortunately, Mr. Kushner has learned, perhaps from Prince bin Salman, that the key to restoring Middle Eastern stability is settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. Mr. Kushner said as much in a rare public appearance at a recent Saban Forum conference.
In fact, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not a reason for Middle Eastern instability but an excuse for it. Since Israel was created in 1947 its Arab neighbors have never cared about what happens to the Palestinians, only using them as a lever against Israel.
The geopolitical equation has been changed greatly since the 9-11 attacks brought America to war first in Afghanistan and then Iraq. Since Mr. Obama withdrew from Iraq, that nation has become an Iranian satellite state.
Before former President Obama’s nuclear weapons deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy was generally somnolent, relying on the United States for both income and security. But Mr. Obama’s deal left them isolated, resulting in their far more aggressive foreign policy.
The Saudis and their Gulf allies are stalemated in their war in Yemen against Houthi rebels backed by Iran. They are also facing Iranian (and Russian) domination of Syria. The defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq left other vacuums that Iran is filling quickly.
Iran’s presence in Syria has been legitimized by President Trump, damaging significantly our position in the Middle East. After meeting Russian President Putin at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Vietnam, the two presidents issued a joint statement about cooperation in Syria which makes no mention of the Iranian forces there and imposes no requirement for them to be withdrawn. Those forces are an existential threat to Israel and also threaten the Saudis.
On December 4, The Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned the Syrian government that Israel would not tolerate Iran’s establishing military bases there, which Iran is currently doing.
While all of that is going on, Hamas — a terrorist group that rules the Gaza Strip and is allied with the Palestinian Authority — has allied itself with Iran. Last summer Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s “prime minister” of Gaza, said Iranian support of Hamas and its military wing is “strategic.”
Hamas is also linked closely with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist group that dominates Lebanon. The Saudis view Hezbollah as a significant threat. When Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, fearing assassination by Hezbollah, fled to Saudi Arabia to resign, he was persuaded to delay his resignation and return to Lebanon presumably to work against Hezbollah, a force he can’t possibly control.
If Israel didn’t exist, the Sunni Arab nations would still be fighting against Shiite Iran. Theirs is a religious conflict that has continued for more than a millennium and won’t end. But because Hamas, a principal Palestinian group, is allying itself with Iran, the Arab nations could possibly agree to sign a deal to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. No agreement can be worth the paper it’s printed on unless the Arab nations are also signatories to it.
For all the threats of Palestinian violence resulting from the new Jerusalem policy, Mr. Trump’s announcement could be well-timed to capitalize on the Arabs’ growing disaffection with the Palestinians because of their realignment with Iran.
In this environment, when the Arab nations care far more about securing themselves against Iran, the Palestinians could be forced to agree to a deal with Israel if Messrs. Kushner and Greenblatt play their cards right.
It’s a very long long-shot. If Mr. Trump were to publicly change the position he took in the joint statement with Mr. Putin to require withdrawal of all Iranian forces from Syria, he could put Hamas on the spot for its alliance with Iran, the mutual enemy of us, Israel and the Sunni nations. Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority’s leader, would be in a very weak position that the Saudis, Jordanians and others could help us leverage into a deal.
By showing strength, as he has in announcing a new Jerusalem policy, Mr. Trump could have a much better chance at it than his three immediate predecessors did.
• Jed Babbin served as a deputy undersecretary of defense in the George H.W. Bush administration. He is a senior fellow of the London Center for Policy Research and the author of five books including “In the Words of Our Enemies.”
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