TOPEKA, Kan. (AP) - A surprisingly competitive special congressional election in Kansas has Democrats hopeful about cracking Republicans’ lock on the state’s delegation next year. An open contest for governor also looming.
The state wouldn’t seem fertile ground for Democratic gains. The GOP has won every statewide and congressional race since 2008.
But Republican Ron Estes’ 7-percentage-point victory over Democrat James Thompson in the 4th Congressional District in south-central Kansas drew national attention because GOP candidates there won by an average of 27 percentage points over the past 20 years. The seat was vacant after former U.S. Rep. Mike Pompeo’s appointment as CIA director.
The close result immediately had both parties buzzing about their chances in 2018 races.
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WHY ARE PEOPLE TALKING ABOUT THE 2018 ELECTIONS WHEN VOTING IS MORE THAN A YEAR AWAY?
Serious candidates for governor and Congress often start building organizations and announcing themselves during the summer or fall of the year before election. They need time to raise the several million dollars necessary to finance the most-competitive campaigns.
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WHAT ARE THE BIG RACES NEXT YEAR?
GOP Gov. Sam Brownback is term-limited, vaulting the governor’s race to the top of the list.
Republicans close to Brownback have said there’s a strong chance President Donald Trump will appoint him U.S. ambassador to three United Nations food and agriculture agencies in Rome.
If Brownback left, Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer would become governor, but that’s not likely to discourage all potential GOP candidates.
The other top races are for U.S. House seats. Republican incumbent Lynn Jenkins is not seeking re-election in the 2nd District in eastern Kansas, and Democrats have high hopes for both the 4th District and the 3rd District in the Kansas City area.
Voters also will decide races for attorney general, secretary of state, state treasurer and insurance commissioner. All 125 state House seats will be on the ballot.
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KANSAS IS A REPUBLICAN STATE, SO WHY ARE DEMOCRATS TALKING UP THEIR CHANCES?
The special election’s results raised questions about whether enough voters are unhappy with President Donald Trump to make him a liability for GOP candidates. Republican Gov. Sam Brownback also is unpopular because of the state’s budget problems.
Democrats feel energized and expect to turn out plenty of voters like Cindy Edwards, a 54-year-old retired medical services worker from Wichita.
“I think Trump is a joke and Brownback has done nothing but put our state in a horrible mess,” she said after voting for Thompson in the special election.
Republicans see the special election results as a fluke because it was the first such contest in Kansas since 1950.
“Don’t try to draw broad lessons,” said Clay Barker, the state GOP’s executive director.
But Bob Beatty, a Washburn University political science professor, said the special election demonstrated that the political environment has changed. Kansas Republicans owed much of their success over the past eight years to running against former President Barack Obama at all levels and that tactic is likely lost to them now that the Democrat is out of office, Beatty said.
“The thinking changes when the power changes in D.C.,” Beatty said of voters.
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WHO ARE THE LEADING CANDIDATES FOR GOVERNOR?
On the Republican side, Wichita businessman Wink Hartman is running. Former state Rep. Ed O’Malley, now director of a nonprofit Wichita leadership center, has formed an exploratory committee.
Other potential GOP candidates include Colyer, Secretary of State Kris Kobach, Attorney General Derek Schmidt and 3rd District Rep. Kevin Yoder. Senate President Susan Wagle, of Wichita, also has been on Republican lists.
The only announced Democratic candidate is former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer.
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WHAT ABOUT CONGRESSIONAL RACES?
In the 2nd District, former Kansas House Minority Leader Paul Davis, the Democrats’ 2014 nominee for governor, is exploring a run. Conservative state Sen. Steve Fitzgerald, of Leavenworth, is seeking the GOP nomination, and several other state lawmakers are weighing the race.
Democrats are bullish on the 3rd District even if Yoder seeks re-election because Trump failed to carry the district. Jay Sidie, the 2016 Democratic nominee, is already running, but many Democrats expect other candidates as well.
Thompson plans to run again in the 4th, setting up a potential rematch with Estes. But he could face a primary challenger, given the special election’s result, with the Wichita Eagle reporting that Wagle is considering the race.
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IS THIS ALL POLITICAL THEATER? DOES IT HAVE ANY IMPACT UNTIL NEXT YEAR?
It has an impact in Topeka, where it makes resolving big budget, tax and school funding issues more complicated.
Lawmakers considering higher office sometimes vote differently to appeal to a wider swath of the electorate and organizing a campaign divides a legislator’s attention. Lawmakers who aren’t running often take sides, creating extra friction.
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Also contributing was Associated Press Writer Roxana Hegeman in Wichita.
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