OPINION:
Donald Trump needs to talk to two audiences Monday night in order to have a clear path to the White House: White, married women and white, college-educated men.
The good news is that both of these demographics lean Republican. The bad news is that he’s performing worse among them than Mitt Romney. Why? The temperament issue — many don’t feel he’s a plausible presidential candidate. A sober, serious Mr. Trump — who doesn’t take Hillary Clinton’s bait and sticks to a positive, outsider message — will go a long way to securing his path to the White House.
Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. Trump by eight points among white women who went to college, according to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. An ABC/Washington Post poll has Mrs. Clinton now winning this demographic by 25 points, up 10 points from earlier this month. This is was a demographic Mr. Romney won by six points in 2012.
“There is something really basic, elemental, going on here with women reacting to [Mr. Trump],” Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg, told the Atlantic. “Every signal he’s sent that has built up his support with men and Republicans has had the opposite effect with women.”
To win the suburban, white, married women vote will be more of a stylistic challenge for Mr. Trump than a substantive one. They didn’t like the way he treated Fox News moderator Megyn Kelly after the first primary debate, and they were turned off when he chastised Carly Fiorina for her physical attributes rather than policy ideas.
This puts Mr. Trump in a bit of a pickle, because he simply can’t go after Mrs. Clinton in the same way he hit Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or he’ll appear sexist. It goes also against his nature of counter-punching and is in every way an advantage for Mrs. Clinton, who’s campaign is not afraid of man-to-man combat.
“Nobody likes to see a man beating up a girl, and nobody likes to see a man invading a woman’s personal space,” Jennifer Lawless, director of the Women & Politics Institute at American University told Time Magazine. “You have to demonstrate that you’re respectful and not belittle or demean your candidate’s accomplishments or qualifications.”
That’s a fine line that others have crossed — including President Barack Obama.
Rick Lazio, when debating Mrs. Clinton for the New York Senate seat, approached her physical space at the lectern demanding she sign a pledge against soft money. To many it felt physically threatening. Mr. Obama hit a sour note when he reassured Mrs. Clinton she was “likable enough.”
Mr. Trump is going to have to be respectful, while still hitting Mrs. Clinton on her record of corruption. The Clinton Foundation, her lack of accomplishments at the State Department, paid speeches to Wall Street insiders, history of secrecy, FBI investigation and private email server are all fair game. Her health and husband’s infidelities are not.
Mr. Trump also needs to win over college-educated white men. Mr. Romney won them by 21 points four years ago, but Mr. Trump is losing them by 9 points in the latest Journal poll. Many are turned off by his temperament, so showing a little humility tonight, some policy knowledge and discipline will go along way in securing their vote. They’re already inclined to vote Republican, after all.
Mr. Trump’s biggest strength is among whites without a college education, where he’s leading Mrs. Clinton by 26 points nationally, and making traditionally blue states such Iowa and Pennsylvania competitive. Still, he’s just not winning them by a wide enough margin to make up for his losses with the college-educated crew.
Since Mr. Trump is unlikely to do better than Mr. Romney with the black, Hispanic or millennial vote, he needs to make up the difference somewhere else. Tonight’s his first opportunity — uninterrupted and without network biases — to do just that.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.