BANGKOK, Thailand | In the wake of a successful campaign by the military government to push through a new constitution this summer, Thailand’s fearful and cowed political opposition is facing a steep challenge to revive its fortunes in the face of political arrests, censorship and new levers for government of Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha to suppress dissent.
But while overt opposition in the so-called “Land of Smiles” may appear to have shrunk to a mere handful of students, academics and politicians, Thai and foreign analysts, diplomats and others warn that this Buddhist-majority country remains dangerously polarized under the surface.
The government insists the stability brought on by the August constitution referendum — which was approved with just over 60 percent of the vote — is proof that Thailand is once again an investment-rich environment for U.S. and other international corporations. But turnout in the vote was disappointing — just 55 percent — and the response from the business community in this longtime U.S. ally has been decidedly mixed.
In May 2014, then-Army Chief Gen. Prayuth led the coup against a popular elected government and became prime minister, benefiting from a popular backlash against factional political clashes in the streets.
In the wake of a constitutional vote, Mr. Prayuth declared civilian dissidents would no longer be forced to stand trial in Bangkok’s Military Court, and could instead have their hearings in civilian courts, which was the norm before the coup.
“Over the past two years, peace and order have gradually been restored with people cooperating well, to bring the country forward for sustainable development, reform and fair reconciliation,” the government’s Sept. 12 order said. “It is therefore appropriate to further relax measures, so all sides can perform their duties.”
Capitalist Bangkok and other Thai cities bustle with activity amid a peaceful ambiance of relative order controlled by the U.S.-trained military.
Thailand is a non-NATO U.S. treaty ally.
“Prayuth the prime minister is seen to be straight, honest and sincere,” said Kasit Piromya, a member of the government’s National Reform Steering Assembly.
“He works within a very small circle of friends and acquaintances. He has not shown much intellectual capacity and vision [but] it is quite easy to run a country with military hardware and draconian laws,” Mr. Kasit, 72, said in an interview.
Mr. Prayuth recently orchestrated the drafting of the new constitution — the country’s 20th such charter — to create a “reformed” political system.
The draft constitution allows the junta to handpick a 250-member Senate, including six seats for the head of the army, navy, air force and national police, plus the military’s supreme commander and defense permanent secretary.
One of Thailand’s few active opposition groups is the youthful New Democracy Movement (NDM), rebranded from a previous Thai Student Center for Democracy.
But after staging several small, attention-getting protests, NDM activists were subjected to Military Court trials, or “attitude adjustment sessions,” under military confinement — alongside hundreds of dissidents from other groups — which left the party frustrated and cynical.
“The public [has] a problem understanding politics because conservatives have given false ideas about democracy to the public for a very long time, to make Thai people think the authoritarian regime is democratic,” said NDM member Than Rittiphan, 24. “Obedience becomes fundamental in their mentality,” Mr. Than said.
By controlling the media, the regime has often been able to shape the message, others said.
“The anti-junta opposition lacks freedom of expression to communicate to the people at large,” said Phongthep Thepkanjana, who was deputy prime minister in the government, which the coup toppled in 2014.
“Thailand is passing [through] a crucial time, during which some influential groups may consider military rule is preferred to democratic government,” said Mr. Phongthep, who was also a former minister of justice, education and energy.
“There are many weaknesses in the anti-junta movement. It is still led by a handful of people, mostly intellectuals, thus the movement is top-down and lacks a grass-roots element,” said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Southeast Asian Studies Center associate professor at Kyoto University in Japan. “Their agenda is issue-oriented, without a grand plan to overcome the military government,” Mr. Pavin said in an interview.
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