Daunting math kicks in quickly. Teams that go down 0-2 in a division series have lost 88 percent of the time. That’s roughly how many Americans approve of apple pie. It’s a heavy majority. In the case of the Nationals, they have Saturday afternoon to avoid such troubling statistics sitting on their postseason hopes once again.
Washington lost Game 1 of the National League Division Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers, 4-3, undone by a lamentable run. When getting dressed afterward, Daniel Murphy was quick to name himself a chief culprit in the night of squander. Starting pitcher Max Scherzer did the same. The Nationals had pushed back against one of the game’s pitching titans, Clayton Kershaw, only to be left with a series deficit following their work.
Murphy’s seventh-inning steal was a head-scratching event. He ran on his own, later saying there are only two options on that play: be safe or don’t run. He ran. He was out. The decision was curious at the time since Murphy has stolen five bases and been caught three times this season. Amplifying the oddity of the decision was that Murphy was playing his first full game since Sept. 17. He was limited to three at-bats before in the final weeks of the season because of a strained left buttocks. Yet, there he was, running on his own late in a one-run game.
“I thought [pitcher Javier Baez] was slow enough for me to get, unfortunately he wasn’t,” Murphy said. “Right there with one out, when you get thrown out, I closed the hole up. That hole was open for Tony, the outfielder’s playing a little farther back, you can go first to third. Like I said, there’s only two choices on that play: It’s either be safe or don’t run, and I can’t get thrown out right there.”
The out also left Murphy in the on-deck circle to close the game. Jayson Werth had gone to the plate with the intent of simply reaching base in any fashion against Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, who is progressively becoming a replication of Mariano Rivera. Murphy’s postseason might made him the MVP of the National League Championship Series last season. Because of his baserunning, he never had a chance to tussle with Jansen in the ninth.
Scherzer would like to pull a curveball back and put it in his pocket. He expected the Dodgers to be fastball hunters. They were early, so Scherzer began to pivot. By the third inning, he started hitters with the softer portion of his arsenal: changeups, sliders and curveballs. Ranked, the curveball would be listed last in Scherzer’s arsenal. He throws it just eight percent of the time. He will have to sleep Friday night knowing the defining blow of Game 1 came against his fourth-best pitch, one that arced like a speed hump instead of a rainbow. Justin Turner hit it just out of the reach of Werth in left field.
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“I shouldn’t have thrown the pitch,” Scherzer said.
The home run was the second allowed by Scherzer in Game 1. He continues to deal with the juxtaposition of being a top-tier pitcher who often allows home runs.
The Nationals’ pushback against Kershaw began in the fourth inning. Werth ran across homeplate with his arms out and ecstasy leaving his mouth. Rookie catcher Pedro Severino scored in the fourth inning. Kershaw, shadowed by playoff demons, watched his four-run lead dwindle to one. His pitch count climbed and climbed. The Nationals filled the basepaths inning after inning. Ryan Zimmerman delivered a 113-mph single to left field. Bryce Harper doubled to right at one point. In five innings, the Nationals came up with eight hits against Kershaw, who started the game by striking out the side. It was an insufficient bludgeoning.
“Kind of lacked that big kill shot from an offensive standpoint, and I think that doesn’t go any farther than my locker right here,” Murphy said.
In the back of the Nationals’ clubhouse, the veterans sat down to explain in positive tones their distressing position in the series.
“I don’t think you waste any opportunities in the playoffs,” Zimmerman said. “It’s not easy to win games. Those guys — Clayton threw well, then their bullpen came in and did a good job. It’s not easy to score runs in the playoffs. If we continue with that approach and those kinds of at bats, I think the next four games would be good for us.”
“These are big games, big situations,” Werth said. “It’s best just to stay relaxed, stay calm and confident and do your best. We ended up on the wrong side tonight. But we’ve got a big game tomorrow. We just need to answer back.”
Those two dealt with the aches of 2012, then 2014. Now, they are down again in the first round of the playoffs. Another day of almost will put them in an almost unsurmountable position by the time the plane leaves for California on Sunday.
• Todd Dybas can be reached at tdybas@washingtontimes.com.
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