Veteran pollster John Zogby sent out an “Uh-oh” alert Saturday night noting that heading into Sunday, two key voting groups that had shifted toward Barack Obama by the Saturday before the 2012 election — and that gave him his landslide victory — were not moving Democrat Hillary Clinton’s way four days before Tuesday’s election.
“Donald Trump will win if kids and blacks stay home,” Mr. Zogby said in response to an email from The Washington Times.
In his emailed alert that something was up with the electorate, Mr. Zogby refers to the segments of the electorate that propelled Mr. Obama to a big win in an election campaign that seesawed between him and Mr. Romney in what looked like a very tight race.
“The two groups were 18-29 year olds and self-identified members of the ’Creative Class’ were clearly moving in the president’s direction both nationwide and in the battleground states,” he said.
But here’s what Mr. Zogby sees as of Saturday night:
“After serious doubts expressed among mainstream and traditional conservative Republicans about nominee Donald Trump, it looks like he is polling about 90 percent of self-identified Republicans, exactly where a party standard-bearer needs to be.”
Second, young African Americans “are not quite in Clinton’s Camp – this is a serious cause for concern among supporters of Mrs. Clinton. The New York Times/CBS Poll published this past Thursday, shows her leading Mr. Trump 82 percent to 3 percent, which has been reported as huge.”
Sure it’s huge, said Mr. Zogby, but it also means that 15 percent are still not sure about her or are supporting someone else.
“When I see African Americans who are undecided, especially this late in the game, it tells me that they are not going to vote,” Mr. Zogby says. “Every African American who does not vote is a lost vote for Clinton. It is not surprising that the president, first lady, Pharrell Williams, Jay-Z, and Beyoncé are being dispatched to North Carolina and other states with large African American votes. At this point, she is under performing in these states.”
More alarming for Mrs. Clinton is evidence that millennials may stay home.
About one in five young voters are still undecided. Mr. Zogby notes “they were the key group, especially young women, who put Mr. Obama over the top in 2012. We are still not sure if they are going to even vote. We do know they will not support Mr. Trump, but Mrs. Clinton is still polling around 50 percent of 18-29 year olds and many are telling pollsters and reporters that she represents the Establishment, something they reject.”
On the plus side for the Democratic nominee, Mr. Zogby said that halfway through the weekend the polling suggests Mrs. Clinton will outperform Mr. Obama’s “big showing four years ago” with Latinos.
“I honestly still do not know who will show up to vote or how this will turn out on Election Day,” Mr. Zogby concluded.
• Ralph Z. Hallow can be reached at rhallow@gmail.com.
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