OPINION:
GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump has given his critics enough ammunition this week to lose the Wisconsin primary, and quite possibly, the nomination.
There’s little doubt the Republican National Committee, and others in the political establishment class, will use Mr. Trump’s gaffes this week — on abortion, on nuclear proliferation, on the federal government’s central role — to justify denying him the nomination at the Republican National Convention if he falls short of the 1,237 delegates he needs to win it outright.
In Wisconsin, the anti-Trump forces are in full effect, and the ground seems to be shifting, away from Mr. Trump and to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Earlier this year, Mr. Trump had a lead in the Badger state — whose blue-collar workers are one of his key demographics — but he’s now fallen 10 points behind Mr. Cruz.
As the Wall Street Journal reported this earlier week: “Top Wisconsin GOP players, from Gov. Scott Walker to state legislators to the powerful conservative talk-radio voices on Milwaukee radio, have been winning pitched battles together in defense of conservative ideals since Republicans took over state government in 2011. Now that organization is united against Mr. Trump in a way he hasn’t seen before, even in states where he faced millions of dollars in attack ads.”
Mr. Trump was ridiculed on conservative talk-show host Charlie Skyes radio program, where the Trump campaign seemed unaware Mr. Skyes had endorsed Mr. Cruz and was solidly in the anti-Trump movement. Our Principles PAC and the Club for Growth are investing millions in the state, running ads that cut to the heart of Mr. Trump’s women problem.
And that problem has been magnified this week. Mr. Trump’s campaign manager Corey Lewandowski was accused of battery, Mr. Trump tripled-down in his defense, and then Mr. Trump went on to say how women who get abortions should get punished. The later was quickly taken back, however, it was enough to do damage — highlighting how ill-prepared the businessman can be on the issues.
Mr. Cruz, on the other hand, has been coming into his own. He had a solid performance in a town-hall debate, he’s entertained events with strong women by his side — former presidential candidate Carly Fiorina and his wife, Heidi — and he was able to back down from the party’s loyalty pledge after Mr. Trump attacked Mrs. Cruz in the week prior. Instead of looking weak, Mr. Cruz has come across as strong.
If Mr. Cruz wins Wisconsin on Tuesday, it will be a combination of anti-Trump organizational support, his own good performance (and dedication to the ground-game and retail politicking), and because Mr. Trump has torpedoed himself. New York will be a tougher battle, but with a momentum shift, Mr. Cruz may perform better in other states.
Most of the remaining primaries are closed — which favor Mr. Cruz because of his strong ground-game — and are well-spaced. Mr. Cruz’s campaign has shown it does well when it has time to campaign in a state. There was about two weeks’ time between the last contests on March 15 and Wisconsin’s April 5 primary.
The party will also begin to rally around him — and against Mr. Trump — if Mr. Cruz does well.
This week, Mr. Trump acted anything but presidential.
You can bet the party will remember his performance come July, no matter how many delegates he collects between now and then.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.