OPINION:
ANALYSIS
Donald Trump is trumpeting his strength with white, middle-class voters, as reason why he’ll be a strong general election candidate – putting the Rust Belt states in play – however a series of polls and analysis call into question those claims.
Mr. Trump has a narrow 3-point lead over Ohio Gov. John Kasich in Pennsylvania — one of the remaining states with a sizable chunk of delegates up for grabs next month — according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll released this week.
The poll shows Mr. Trump trailing Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton by 13 points in the state, 46 percent to 33 percent. Moreover, sixty-five percent of Pennsylvania voters overall had an unfavorable view of Mr. Trump, compared to 27 percent with a favorable view.
Mr. Trump’s path to the White House will be forged by winning Rust Belt states with high concentrations of white working-class voters. Many of these states have voted for a Democrat in the last six elections.
If a Trump campaign could win Florida, and any three states between Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, along with holding the states Mitt Romney won in 2012, the general election could be won. Mr. Trump said he’s also got a shot of winning Virginia, New York and Illinois.
But the polling doesn’t look good. Mr. Trump lost Ohio in the primary to Mr. Kasich. He’s trailing Mrs. Clinton in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. According to a recent poll of the Badger State, Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. Trump 47-38, and Mr. Trump’s favorability numbers are underwater at -44 percent.
Moreover, an analysis by demographer Ruy Teixeira, found unless Mr. Trump outperforms Mr. Romney among college-educated white voters, Mr. Trump would have to improve on Mr. Romney’s margin by double-digits in many of the Midwestern states. Mr. Teixeira found Mr. Trump would have to do better than Mr. Romney among working-class whites by 18 points in Michigan, 12 points in Wisconsin, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 6 points in Ohio.
By the numbers, that’s a herculean task.
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