WARSAW — Many in Eastern Europe — who have been part of the European Union for only a little more than a decade — are looking on with a mixture of disbelief, anxiety and horror as Britons go to the polls in a referendum Thursday that could put the whole point of the alliance in doubt.
Pollsters say the “Brexit” vote on the United Kingdom’s membership in the European Union too close to predict, but the view from the other end of the continent is very different. In the past decade, millions of people from the region have traveled to Britain for work, pleasure or study. The ties are strong, people say, and could be in jeopardy if the “Leave” forces prevail.
Poles represent the largest single group of EU migrants to the United Kingdom with more than 800,000 last year, according to a report by the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford. Many predict that British voters who want to shut off the supply of Polish and other low-wage workers from the east will come to regret it.
“This will not be good for them,” said Agata Kacprzak, 24, a graphic illustrator in Warsaw who also works in a U.K. fruit factory. “When they have to take on the capricious, lazy English, they will miss the hardworking immigrants.”
In Romania, skilled workers are beginning to consider their options. Romanians represent the second-largest group of EU migrants to Britain — 223,000 last year, according to the Migration Observatory.
“Our clients from U.K. who are recruiting — such as hospitals or asylums — they are as open as before and they need the workforce,” said Cristina Irimie, CEO of Romanian recruitment company Brit-Ro Consultancy. “Meanwhile, those looking at U.K. as a destination are waiting to see what will happen. And the highly qualified ones have started to look for other options as well.”
Still, some say a Brexit wouldn’t make much of a difference — that foreign workers would just apply for work permits or U.K. passports. They say it would take years for the situation to get clarified.
But a bigger question, said Radu Magdin, a brand manager for Smartlink Communications in Bucharest, is whether jobs will still be there.
“I don’t believe there will be so many,” he said. “I think there will be economic surprises, especially considering the shock brought by such a result” if Brexit passes.
Looking at the bigger picture, some in Eastern Europe were more concerned with a weakening — or a complete unraveling — of the European Union and its bully pulpit on the world stage.
Some Poles said they were concerned that their country — which joined the bloc in 2004 — would try to exit, too, especially with its conservative government butting heads with Brussels over legal policies and respect for civil liberties.
“I fear Polish politicians will use Britain’s exit to get us out of the union,” said Magdalena, a 30-year-old Warsaw resident who declined to give her last name. “This could help [the government] justify a similar move. For us, though, this would be an eastward move [toward Russia] rather than regaining any independence.”
Polina Slavcheva, 34, who works for a Sofia arts group, said her native Bulgaria, which joined the bloc in 2007, needs the European Union to pursue and reinforce reforms to overcome the effects of decades of communist rule and the corruption that lingers.
“For us in Bulgaria, the EU is a corrective influence — we want the EU and its rules to set things straight,” said Ms. Slavcheva. “The U.K. relies on themselves to run themselves. We do not.”
Still, some share the Leave campaigners’ disillusion with the workings of the European Union.
“In Poland, we had to close sugar plants because in EU sugar is sold by others. Before joining the EU, we were the biggest sugar producers in Europe,” said Malgorzata Kalenik, 40, an architect from Poland who lives in Norway, which is not an EU member. “Norway is obviously lucky. They themselves decide what they can import, and nobody imposes on them what the shape of cucumber or the size of tomato should be.”
Boyko Boev, 43, a Bulgarian lawyer who is also a British citizen, said he would vote to remain in the European Union but understands why so many want to leave: The benefits of EU membership haven’t necessarily trickled down to working-class or unemployed Britons.
Still, Bulgaria — like its fellow Eastern member states — fought hard to join the bloc and underwent years of painful economic reform to qualify, he said.
“That’s the irony,” said Mr. Boev. “For Bulgaria, EU membership was like a well-deserved award for its suffering.”
• Vlad Odobescu reported from Bucharest. John Dyer contributed to this report from Newark, New Jersey.
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