Likely Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton holds a 4-point lead over presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump in the battleground state of Nevada, according to a Monmouth University poll released Monday.
Mrs. Clinton was at 45 percent support to Mr. Trump’s 41 percent, with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 5 percent, according to the poll. The 4-point margin was less than the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Mrs. Clinton had the support of 92 percent of Democrats and 6 percent of Republicans, compared to Mr. Trump’s 88 percent support among Republicans and 3 percent among Democrats.
Mr. Trump had a 2-point lead over Mrs. Clinton among independents, 39 percent to 37 percent, with Mr. Johnson at 10 percent.
“One question at this early stage is whether Clinton can hold onto the small but crucial number of Republican voters who are currently supporting her or whether Trump can win them over as well as Democrats backing Johnson,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
“Otherwise, this contest looks to be lining up along familiar demographic divides where turnout will determine the ultimate outcome,” Mr. Murray said.
President Obama carried the state by about 6 points in 2012 and by about 12 points in 2008.
As has been the case in other polls, there was a significant gender gap. Mrs. Clinton led Mr. Trump among women by 15 points, 53 percent to 38 percent, while Mr. Trump had a 7-point edge among men, 44 percent to 37 percent.
White voters chose Mr. Trump by a 49 percent to 37 percent margin, while Hispanic, black, and Asian voters preferred Mrs. Clinton by a 64 percent to 23 percent margin.
Though both candidates were underwater in terms of favorability, Mr. Trump was actually a hair ahead of Mrs. Clinton on that front. Thirty-four percent said they have a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton, compared to 54 percent with an unfavorable view. Meanwhile, 35 percent said they have a favorable view of Mr. Trump, compared to 53 percent with an unfavorable one.
But 46 percent of voters said they feel it is very important to keep Mr. Trump from being elected president, compared to 41 percent who said the same of Mrs. Clinton.
Still, voters also appeared to have lingering concerns over Mrs. Clinton’s private email set-up as secretary of state.
Almost half of the voters in the poll — 44 percent — said they believe Mrs. Clinton committed a crime through the use of her personal server, while 27 percent said she showed poor judgment but did not commit a crime, 13 percent said she did nothing out of the ordinary, and 16 percent did not offer an opinion.
The survey of 408 likely voters in the state was taken from July 7-10. FBI Director James B. Comey announced July 5 that while Mrs. Clinton was reckless in her private email setup as secretary of state, he would not recommend charges be brought against her.
Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced July 6 she was accepting the recommendation and that there would be no charges. Mr. Comey testified before Congress a day later about his decision.
In the U.S. Senate race in the state, GOP Rep. Joe Heck had a 2-point lead over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, 42 percent to 40 percent. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is not running for re-election this year.
• David Sherfinski can be reached at dsherfinski@washingtontimes.com.
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