OPINION:
Multiple avenues of evidence and imagery support the thesis that North Korean development of a sea-launched ballistic missile capability is moving ahead briskly. Despite a surmised test failure in November 2015, imagery supports reports that North Korea carried out a simple “ejection” test of the Bukkeukseong-1 SLBM in late December.
Imagery of the Sinpo South Shipyard also confirms that construction of fabrication buildings and machine shops that will allow North Korea to build submarines much larger than the SINPO-class is nearing completion, according to the website, 38north.org which provides analysis on North Korea.
Although media reports of failed missile tests could lead one to believe the North has not been successful in producing a capable sea-launched nuclear delivery system, the failures should be seen as a normal part of a development program and maybe even were anticipated by the North Korean development team. Follow-on tests from the failed November effort seem to show North Korean engineers learning from the failures and modifying their designs.
The level of activity at the Sinpo South Shipyard should be taken as a sign that North Korea is determined to develop and field an operational sea-launched ballistic missile capability which could threaten not just the western United States and our Pacific allies, but the entire Western world.
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