CONCORD, N.H. | If political fliers are any indication of future success at the ballot box, then former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush will lap his rivals here in New Hampshire.
One mailing — a send-up of a “Godfather” movie poster — highlights Mr. Bush’s nickname, “Veto Corleone,” earned for the number of bills he rejected during his time as chief executive of Florida. The flier promises Mr. Bush is “coming soon to disrupt Washington.”
Another mailing calls Donald Trump a “bully,” and insists “only one candidate is acting like a commander-in-chief and taking on Trump: Jeb Bush.”
Yet it’s that “bully,” Mr. Trump, who’s leading in the polls and Mr. Bush who’s still searching for a connection with voters who have tuned him out.
The irony is that Mr. Trump has left Granite Staters’ mailboxes free of clutter — not a single leaflet from the billionaire businessman or groups allied with him has been seen.
Long a staple of the campaign ground war, the fliers are increasingly coming under scrutiny for their worth.
“The mailers, interestingly, they must all go the same mail house,” said Neil Levesque, head of the St. Anselm College School of politics. “They are so similar that there is no creativity whatsoever, that as a voter you just pick them out of your box and throw them right in the trash.”
Mr. Levesque said the biggest beneficiaries probably aren’t voters.
“You know a lot of political consultants get a cut when they do a mailer,” Mr. Levesque said. “So they have great faith in mailers, and I think that that probably has a lot to do with it.”
The pro-Bush Right to Rise USA super political action committee has fired off at least 22 glossy mailings, and the Bush campaign itself has added another three to the pile since October, according to Fergus Cullen, the former head of the New Hampshire GOP, who’s been keeping a tally of the fliers he’s received.
The PAC, which raised more than $100 million to boost Mr. Bush in this campaign, has informed voters he loves veterans and they love him back; he has a plan to wipe out the Islamic State terrorists; and he’s more adult than Donald Trump.
Mr. Bush leads the flier tally, with Sen. Marco Rubio and pro-Rubio forces — both the nonprofit Conservative Solutions Project and Conservative Solutions PAC — sending 14 mailers combined to Mr. Cullen, who has endorsed Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
America Leads super PAC, which is supporting New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, has put out at least four pieces.
“The sheer volume of mail makes it harder to push a message, that’s for sure, as voters are getting buried in this stuff,” said Tucker Martin, spokesperson for America Leads. “I’d say that’s a plus for Christie though, as he has put in the real time on the ground in New Hampshire from the beginning, and that means more and more as the mailboxes and airwaves get more and more cluttered.
“We’ve been active with mail for awhile. We’ve been making the case for the governor, and contrasting his record and vision with those of his opponents,” he said.
The fliers mirror the exchanges the candidates are having in the debates and across the campaign trail. Mr. Bush’s allies accuse Mr. Rubio of flip-flopping on “amnesty” for illegal immigrants by helping write the 2013 Senate bill that would have granted most of them citizenship rights.
The pro-Bush Right to Rise group also attacked Mr. Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich for expanding Medicaid under Obamacare, and said Mr. Bush fought Obamacare expansion.
The pro-Rubio Conservative Solutions PAC attacked Mr. Christie last week, saying New Jersey has seen nine credit downgrades on his watch.
And Mr. Christie’s America Leads also attacked Mr. Kasich, casting him as a big spender and an advocate of higher taxes.
The mailings turned decidedly more negative after Christmas.
Almost absent from the New Hampshire flier war is Sen. Ted Cruz, the Texas Republican whose attention is far more focused on Iowa and South Carolina, where he’s hoping to ride the support of evangelical Christians to strong showings.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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