Bernie Sanders cuts Hillary Clinton’s lead in Iowa to 5 points: poll

With just days left until Monday’s caucuses, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a five-point lead in Iowa over 2016 Democratic presidential rival Sen. Bernard Sanders, according to a poll released Thursday that appears to back up Mr. Sanders’ recent contention that he could struggle if turnout isn’t high enough.

Mrs. Clinton was at 47 percent among likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers in the Monmouth University poll, with Mr. Sanders at 42 percent and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley at 6 percent.

That’s a major shift from last month, Mrs. Clinton had a 22-point lead over Mr. Sanders, 55 percent to 33 percent, with Mr. O’Malley again at 6 percent.

“Support for Sanders has come from those who are new to the process, but the current poll indicates he is also cutting into Clinton’s lead among die-hard Democratic partisans,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

Mr. Sanders had the highest favorability rating of the three candidates, with an 85 percent/9 percent favorable/unfavorable split. Mrs. Clinton had a 78 percent/17 percent favorable/unfavorable split and Mr. O’Malley had a 50 percent/14 percent split.

Among voters who have a history of voting in party primaries, Mrs. Clinton had an 8-point edge — down from 27 points last month. Mrs. Clinton had an 11-point lead among registered Democrats who typically participate only in general elections, but Mr. Sanders had an 8-point lead among non-Democrats who say they will change their registration to caucus with Democrats.

The poll projected a turnout of about 110,000 voters — well short of the record turnout in 2008 of about 240,000.

When the turnout model was increased to about 150,000, Mrs. Clinton’s lead over Mr. Sanders narrowed to 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent. A projected turnout of 200,000 put Mrs. Clinton at 45 percent and Mr. Sanders at 44 percent.

After emerging from a meeting with President Obama at the White House Wednesday, Mr. Sanders said if there is a large turnout Monday, he thinks he’ll win, but if not he thinks he’s going to be struggling.

Mrs. Clinton also had a 12-point lead among women, while Mr. Sanders had a 3-point edge among men. Mrs. Clinton had a 20-point lead among voters age 50 and older, while Mr. Sanders had a 28-point lead among voters under 50.