Democrats nabbed nearly all of the recruits they wanted as they launched a push to retake the Senate, but few of the candidates are battle-tested and the party must paddle through distracting primaries before they gun for two dozen Republican seats in play in November.
Sitting Republicans face formidable foes in Wisconsin and New Hampshire, and major Democratic figures are running against Republican incumbents in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Meanwhile the Republican Party has yet to recruit a top-tier candidate for a Democrat-held seat in California and has not rallied around a champion to try to unseat Sen. Michael F. Bennet, Colorado Democrat, according to multiple political analysts.
Yet the lion’s share of Republican incumbents are in game-ready form, and the party has recruited Rep. Joseph J. Heck in Nevada to try to replace Sen. Harry Reid, the longtime Democratic leader who is retiring at the end of the year.
The give-and-take means both sides are looking at mixed fortunes in an election year that has been turned upside down by flamboyant businessman Donald Trump and a surging Sen. Bernard Sanders at the presidential level.
“I think in every cycle, neither party is going to have a perfect batting average at this point,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Though the presidential primaries have soaked up the most newsprint, voters in 34 states will decide the balance of power in the Senate on Nov. 8. Republicans currently hold 24 of those seats.
That lopsided map, combined with a heated Republican presidential race that could alienate some voting blocs, has the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee feeling good about its chances.
DSCC spokeswoman Lauren Passalacqua said there is “no doubt” that Democrats have won the recruitment race and that Republicans will be rattled by infighting at every level.
“While Republicans struggle with divisive state primaries and the disastrous presidential fight, we’ll continue to ensure Democrats are well-positioned to win back the majority,” DSCC spokeswoman Lauren Passalacqua said.
Democrats must win four or five seats, depending on the outcome of the presidential election, to regain control of the Senate. The map gives them plenty of chances, but the number of top-tier candidates with statewide election experience is slim.
Democrats’ best recruits are in Wisconsin, where former Sen. Russell D. Feingold is trying to retake the seat he lost in 2010 to Republican Ron Johnson, and in New Hampshire, where Gov. Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, is trying to unseat Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
In Ohio, former Gov. Ted Strickland, a Democrat, is running for the Senate, though he faces longer odds in his fight against Republican Sen. Rob Portman, according to top prognosticators. In Pennsylvania, former Rep. Joe Sestak, who was narrowly defeated by Republican Sen. Patrick J. Toomey in 2010, is seeking a rematch this year.
Other Democratic recruits — including Rep. Tammy Duckworth in Illinois and former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, who wants to replace Mr. Reid — have less top-flight campaign experience, analysts said, so the races may need to mature before Democrats claim the recruiting title.
“In almost every case, this Senate race will be the most difficult race they’ve ever faced,” said Nathan L. Gonzales, editor of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report.
Some of those Democrats will have to survive primaries before reaching the main event in the general election.
“While their candidates may well prevail across the board, it has been a distraction,” said Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor at The Cook Political Report.
In Florida, the Democratic establishment has put up Rep. Patrick Murphy, a former Republican and centrist, although liberal interests have their own recruit in outspoken Rep. Alan Grayson.
Republicans are trying to defend the seat given up by Sen. Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican who is running for president. Its own crowded field includes Reps. David W. Jolly and Ron DeSantis and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Contrera.
Republicans have failed to get a solid recruit in California, though, leaving it to Democratic Attorney General Kamala Harris and her main rival, Rep. Loretta Sanchez, to duke out who will replace retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Democrat.
“It’s California. It’s just too Democratic to really put any resources in,” Mr. Gonzales said.
On the flip side, Democrats are trying to determine whether they can vie for Sen. Rand Paul’s seat in Kentucky, where there is mounting pressure on the Republican to quit his lagging presidential campaign and focus on the state’s primary caucuses.
While it may be a quandary for Mr. Paul, Republicans may have little to fear from Democrats looking to take advantage of Mr. Paul’s dilemma. Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, a promising Democratic recruit in 2014, was routed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Republican Gov. Matt Bevin swept into office on a platform of undoing Obamacare even though it has performed relatively well in the state.
Analysts said Democrats intent on retaking the Senate probably should be looking elsewhere.
“It’s just kind of gravy; it’s not the main course,” Mr. Gonzales said of Kentucky. “I just don’t think it’s an essential seat to win the majority.”
Elsewhere, the parties are doing the best with what they have. Although Republicans don’t have many targets to swing at this cycle, observers said they could be doing better in Colorado.
State Rep. Jon Keyser, a lawyer and Air Force veteran, jumped into the Republican primary touting his national security credentials, although the National Republican Senatorial Committee said it will wait until the people have spoken.
“We don’t get involved until a nominee is chosen, and chosen by the voters,” NRSC spokeswoman Alleigh Marre said.
Democrats have their own uphill climb in North Carolina. Instead of waiting on the sidelines, the DSCC last week endorsed state Rep. Deborah Ross, a lawyer, to take on Republican Sen. Richard Burr as it tries to erase the memory of Sen. Kay Hagan’s loss in 2014 to Thom Tillis.
“Deborah was recognized as one of North Carolina’s most effective legislators during her time in the state legislature, and her commitment to fighting for North Carolina families is unwavering,” said Sen. Jon Tester, Montana Democrat and DSCC chairman.
All in all, analysts say, Democrats largely got what they wanted for the election season. But they also said it is unfair to compare the parties’ recruiting efforts given the imbalanced map.
“One thing we can say about Republicans is they didn’t really have many places to play offense,” Mr. Kondik said. “But other than Rubio, they didn’t really lose any incumbents in vulnerable seats.”
• Tom Howell Jr. can be reached at thowell@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.