OPINION:
Russia may possibly be exploring a base near the Syrian border with Turkey to build another air base to support Russian offensive air operations against anti-Assad forces and the Islamic State. Russia has been steadily expanding its presence in the Middle East in concert with Syrian forces and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
U.S. officials reported seeing a “limited” number of Russian military personnel, more akin to an exploratory party, looking at an airfield in Qamishli, Syria, possibly to determine how they might use the site in the future, reported Fox News.
“We don’t know what their intent is, but it is something we are watching closely,” one official said.
The roots of this action seem to have a lot more to do with Russia’s relations with Turkey than with fighting Sunni Islamic radicals. The disagreement over the Syrian civil war has poisoned the interaction between the Russian Federation and Turkey, formally a tourist haven for Russians looking for warm weather.
The Erdogan government in Turkey has wanted Syria’s Bashar al-Assad removed from power for some time. Russia has semi-permanently prevented this.
“I can say that Turkey is closely watching every military movement on its borders and especially the border with Syria,” the government source told AFP.
“We are aware of Russia’s movements. Russia’s movements in Qamishli cannot constitute a threat for Turkey, which is a member of NATO,” said the Turkish Prime Minister.
The possible building of another Russian air base in Syria is not just about buttressing the Assad regime, it is about supporting the Kurdish militias along the Syrian border. This support is an anathema to Turkey. The new base will be the bitter fruit of Turkey shooting down a Russian jet along the Syrian border last year.
Russia wants to hit Turkey where it hurts. Supporting the Kurdish resistance in Syria (and possibly in southern Turkey) will do this. We have seen Turkish forces invade Iraq and even bomb Kurdish positions fighting ISIS in order to prevent a Kurdish state on its border. Russia providing air cover along the Syrian border will prevent this from happening in the future.
The problem is that tensions in Syria between Russia and Turkey are rising. Turkey, as a member of NATO, knows it can invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty at any sign of a threat from Moscow. The White House needs to make very clear to Erdogan’s Islamist government that the United States will not be drawn into a war because of Turkish aggression for its own agenda in the region.
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