Republican voters are increasingly seeing Donald Trump as their best shot to win back the White House in this fall’s general election, as the bombastic billionaire has defied analysts who predicted his controversies would dent his electability.
The most recent poll, released Wednesday by Monmouth University, found far more voters now say Mr. Trump has a better chance of defeating Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton than either Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas or Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who combined with Mr. Trump round out the top of the GOP field.
“Contrary to many party leaders’ hopes, the electability argument is not going to drag down Trump, but there may be some doubts about Cruz,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Thirty-seven percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents sided with Mr. Trump and 24 percent went with Mr. Cruz when asked who has the best chance at beating Mrs. Clinton. And 47 percent picked Mr. Trump versus 22 percent who backed Mr. Rubio in the same match-up.
In an ABC News/Washington Post poll released last month, 47 percent of Republicans and GOP leaners also said Mr. Trump had the best chance of winning the presidency out of five of the top Republican candidates, compared to Mr. Cruz at 15 percent, Mr. Rubio at 14 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 8 percent and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 7 percent.
GOP strategist John Feehery chalked up Mr. Trump’s durability in Republican voters’ eyes in part to his status as a political outsider, but said a broader pool of general election voters wouldn’t necessarily feel the same way.
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“He’s not a typical politician and people want change,” Mr. Feehery said. “I think that’s the problem that the Republicans face, is that their most popular choice in a primary is a disaster in the general.”
Indeed, in head-to-head general election match-ups, Mr. Trump does worse than the others. An NBC-Wall Street Journal poll released earlier this week found Mr. Trump trailing Mrs. Clinton by 10 percentage points, while Mr. Cruz was down 4 points and Mr. Rubio was running nearly even, at a 1 point deficit.
But Republican voters still seem to be gravitating toward the idea that Mr. Trump will be the one to give the GOP the best shot against the Democrats this fall.
As Mr. Cruz has risen in the polls, Mr. Trump has raised questions about the Texas Republican’s general election viability by saying Mr. Cruz’s Canadian birthplace would trigger challenges over his eligibility to serve as president.
“Honestly, Ted has a problem,” Mr. Trump said at an event in Iowa Wednesday. “Let’s say you have him as a candidate, and he’s running, and then you find out you lose in court — you don’t have a candidate all of a sudden.”
Mr. Cruz has said the legal issue over his U.S. citizenship is clear and straightforward, but several polls have indicated the attacks might be sticking for some voters.
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Toward the end of the appearance, Mr. Trump also cast a pessimistic view on the future of the country should Mrs. Clinton or Sen. Bernard Sanders win the election.
“We can turn our country around,” he said. “I think we can make it greater than ever before.”
“But if we go four more years … with Obama and maybe worse, between either of ’em, I mean, how about this guy, this socialist, Bernie Sanders?” he said. “I mean, this guy’s a total wack job. But if we go with either one of ’em — but let’s assume it’s Hillary … if we go with either of these two people, I’m not sure you ever come back from it.”
• David Sherfinski can be reached at dsherfinski@washingtontimes.com.
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