Reality has finally slapped part of the Republican Party. That reality has a name: Donald Trump.
Most Republicans, especially those who are branded as the “Republican Establishment” did not believe Donald Trump would run for President. They believed he would do what he did in 2012. That is, he would flirt with the run, pick up some interest, then decide against it.
Trump entered the race.
The Establishment expected Trump to fade. He did not, at least, not yet.
Now, a lot of Republicans are looking for an alternative to Trump. There are only two choices. It is either Texas Senator Ted Cruz or Florida Senator Marco Rubio.
Only Ted Cruz can win.
The answer is politics but it is more than that. Ted Cruz advertises himself as the consistent conservative. He backs that up with a solid track record. Rubio is busy trying to get people to forget he supported amnesty for illegal aliens, after campaigning on a promise of opposing amnesty.
But it is much more than politics that tells the GOP that Ted Cruz is the only alternative to Donald Trump.
Campaigns and elections are a science that is dominated by numbers. More votes mean a candidate wins. High negative numbers means a candidate loses. Modern political campaigns are driven by data every bit as much as any Fortune 500 company.
Numbers do not lie.
Donald Trump has huge unfavorable ratings. When that is combined with his almost universal name recognition, he cannot get about 40% of the vote.
That leaves the remainder divided between Senators Cruz and Rubio. One of them has to go in order to defeat Trump and the one that has to go is Rubio.
If Ted Cruz left the race, three quarters of his support would go to Donald Trump. This is not a wild guess. Surveys have shown that Donald Trump is the second choice of 75% of Cruz supporters.
However, if Marco Rubio dropped out of the race, surveys have shown that Ted Cruz is the second choice of roughly 70% of Rubio supporters.
The numbers do not lie.
If Ted Cruz drops out of the race for President, his supporters go to Donald Trump. The bombastic billionaire is already crushing Marco Rubio. Even in Rubio’s home state of Florida, Trump has a huge lead over the Senator. With most of the freed up votes going to Trump instead of Rubio, it becomes a mathematical impossibility for Rubio to catch Trump.
While most polls have Senator Cruz trailing Donald Trump, the margin is not that great. One on one, Ted Cruz beats Donald Trump. One on one, he also beats Hillary Clinton, which is something Donald Trump cannot do.
If Marco Rubio drops out, most of his voters go to Ted Cruz. With that support, Ted Cruz then beats Donald Trump.
Republicans must beat Donald Trump. He is not a conservative, nor is he a Republican save in name only. Trump would be an electoral disaster for the Republican Party, not to mention America.
In the end, there can be only one challenger to Donald Trump. The math is simple and it does not lie. Ted Cruz can beat Donald Trump; Marco Rubio cannot.
In the end, there can be only one and that one needs to be Ted Cruz.
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