OPINION:
Vladimir Putin’s challenge to America and its allies in the Middle East and Central Europe, a challenge he made despite his fragile domestic economy, is nevertheless working. He’s leading boldly from the front, not from behind. The skidding price of gas and oil, Russia’s major export, and the limited sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies have inflicted shortages and inflation at home, but Mr. Putin is sending the challenge, anyway.
Like the fascist dictators of the 1930s, who were bluffing in the beginning, the Russian president is working a bluff, too. Hitler, as history has revealed, was secretly willing in encounter after encounter with France and the Western alliance, to back off if France or its allies barked back. None did.
Nothing succeeds like success — or recedes when confronted — and each of Hitler’s victories encouraged further appeasement. These are different times, of course, and Vladimir Putin is neither Adolf Hitler nor Benito Mussolini, but Mr. Putin’s popularity at home is fed by similar effrontery. Frustrated masses respond to a leader who leads, and sometimes the louder the better.
Mr. Putin succeeded first in weakened Georgia, then in Ukraine, which was trying to establish independence after centuries of Russian domination. His most striking strategic triumph has been in the Mediterranean, where he has established a Russian base in Syria. He has challenged the post-Soviet U.S. domination of Europe by “establishing a permanent presence in the Mediterranean, breaking out from a military encirclement by NATO, economic sanctions and political isolation.”
The ruthless Russian air support of the Bashar Assad regime in Damascus is the cover for the reestablished Russian bases, with weapons that have nothing to do with a war against Syrian terrorism. Long-range Russian aircraft can now operate all along NATO’s southern flank. With advanced surveillance aircraft, this is a long-range air-defense and precision-strike force, including, according to reliable intelligence agencies, a highly capable anti-ship cruise missile to give Bashar Assad an advanced air defense system. This is a challenge to Turkey and NATO.
The Russian president now has the opportunity to put additional pressure on a diminished and overworked American military. The United States will be required to redeploy resources needed in the Middle East to the Sea of Japan and the South China Sea, where China is rapidly expanding its military presence. By refusing to go after the terrorists allied to the self-proclaimed Islamic state, Mr. Putin has challenged NATO. His success has reached such proportions that Donald Trump talks of extending him a negotiating hand.
The Obama counter-strategy has been a continued reliance on a policy of open-handedness to enemies in hopes of attracting them to the negotiating table and compromise. There is no evidence, either with the Islamic terrorists or Mr. Putin, that his strategy is working. By most accounts Barack Obama’s deal with the mullahs in Tehran will be a further threat to the West, and releasing Iranian assets as part of the bargain frees the mullahs to be the greatest terror threat in the world. President Obama’s dogged determination to follow his strategy will inevitably speed the Russian expansion in the Mediterranean, encouraging the perception of a new cold war.
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