ANALYSIS/OPINION
Ben Carson’s last-place finish in the South Carolina Republican primary (he earned 7.2 percent of the total votes cast) has given rise to speculation that he must make some difficult choices about whether to continue his campaign — especially after Jeb Bush, who slightly bested Mr. Carson at 7.8 percent, announced after Saturday’s vote that he was suspending his campaign.
However, Mr. Carson’s path to the nomination has always differed from that of an establishment candidate like Mr. Bush, and Mr. Carson’s decision about whether and how to continue likely relies on different considerations.
One major factor in Mr. Carson’s continued relevance is that his strength among evangelicals in South Carolina was widely seen as having cost Sen. Ted Cruz a second-place finish in the state, as Sen. Marco Rubio edged out Mr. Cruz by tenths of a percentage point.
Clearly the Cruz camp sees Mr. Carson’s continued participation in the race as a major impediment to the Texan, and this will only intensify as the campaign moves into Nevada, where the evangelical vote constitutes a smaller, shallower pool.
Mr. Cruz failed in his attempt to get Mr. Carson to concede in a face-to-face meeting on Saturday in South Carolina before the voting began, and after bad blood between the two over reported “dirty tricks” by the Cruz campaign in Iowa had spilled over into the two subsequent contests.
The Cruz campaign’s attempt to dissuade Mr. Carson’s Iowa voters from turning out, or to deceive them into believing Carson had in fact dropped out of the race, probably played a major factor in Mr. Cruz’s upset of Donald Trump in the state. Mr. Carson’s refusal to concede in the days leading up to the South Carolina primary, combined with Mr. Bush’s exit, might have the effect of emboldening his supporters to continue to campaign for him in the remaining primaries.
Thus Mr. Carson’s value as a candidate who either can win the primaries or lend significant support to the ultimate nominee has the potential to rise. Thus, it is far from over for the Carson campaign in that respect.
On the other hand, Mr. Carson does face some hard choices. He has not placed among the top three in any of the primaries thus far, and even though his supporters are asking him to stay in the race, he will have to face the harsh reality sooner rather than later.
Republican primary voters are favoring an angry, aggressive candidate, as Donald Trump’s landslide victory in South Carolina seems to indicate. It goes almost without saying that the Trump and Carson styles could not be any more diametrically opposed. If voters want an angry candidate, they are not going to get it from Mr. Carson, whose demeanor is unswervingly cool and deliberative.
Still, there is some room to maneuver for Mr. Carson. Whether he can add value as someone who reduces competition for Mr. Trump or increases the viability of the Rubio campaign remains to be seen.
At first glance it would seem that Mr. Rubio, both because of his Florida base (which he shared with Mr. Bush) and his establishment credentials, will inherit establishment votes conceded by Mr. Bush in his exit. The competition for second is where the race is at right now. Mr. Cruz needs every vote he can get — and that places Mr. Carson in a prime negotiating position.
On the other hand, the Trump campaign is clearly worried about a Rubio surge after his campaign finished unexpectedly strong in the three primary contests thus far. The Trump campaign may see Mr. Carson’s exit from the race as an opportunity to boost Mr. Cruz and hamstring Mr. Rubio’s momentum.
Those who know and love Mr. Carson all want the best for him. When it’s all said and done, no matter how it turns out, Mr. Carson will have established a new model for an outsider candidate in Republican presidential politics. He continues to build on a groundswell of goodwill and popularity all over the country that is sure to carry over into anything he decides to do next.
And there is always the chance that unforeseen factors may dramatically change the electoral calculus. Especially when you have an outsider like Mr. Trump leading the race, and with so much controversy surrounding his campaign rhetoric, the unexpected is almost guaranteed.
At some point along the line, voters may have blown off their steam and no longer be so attracted to the angry rhetoric; they may be more willing to take a second look at a candidate who doesn’t play petty politics, and who has a track record of honor and integrity.
In the near term, it looks as if a current of anger and resentment among voters has aided Mr. Trump’s ascendancy in the primaries — but that current could conceivably change. And if it does, only someone who still has an oar in the water can take advantage of it.
• Armstrong Williams is manager and sole owner of Howard Stirk Holdings I & II Broadcast Television Stations and executive editor of American CurrentSee online magazine. He is a business manager for, and a confidant, of Ben Carson.
• Armstrong Williams can be reached at 125939@example.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.