The Washington Redskins had a straight formula to enter the playoffs for the second consecutive season: Win the final three games, and they were in.
Two of those games were against sub-.500 teams. One, the finale against the New York Giants, could well be against a team that has nothing to play for since its playoff spot would likely be determined beforehand.
The Redskins’ first move in the three-step process was to fall on their faces. Monday night’s 26-15 loss to the Carolina Panthers twisted Washington’s path to the postseason and sliced its odds of getting there.
“We still got everything that we want in our hands,” defensive lineman Chris Baker said. “We just have to find a way to win these next two and see what happens.”
The 8-6 Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in front of 7-6-1 Washington. The Detroit Lions, 9-5, are also in the mix now. The Redskins are in if they win both of their remaining games and Tampa loses once, Green Bay loses once and Detroit loses twice. That would make Washington 9-6-1, Green Bay, Tampa and Detroit 9-7. Things become more convoluted from there.
The Redskins will be eliminated with a loss or tie this Saturday against the Chicago Bears plus a Packers win over the Vikings; or a loss to the Bears plus a Bucs win or tie against the Saints; or a tie against the Bears plus a Bucs win over the Saints.
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There is no scenario next week which eliminates Tampa Bay. The Packers cannot be eliminated or clinch this weekend, either. Detroit, which faces the Dallas Cowboys Dec. 26 on Monday Night Football, is looking at numerous scenarios where it can clinch a playoff berth. Once the weekend’s games are complete, Detroit’s path will become much more clear.
Tampa Bay plays at New Orleans (6-8) then hosts Carolina (6-8) to close the season. Green Bay hosts the Minnesota Vikings (7-7) then plays at Detroit (9-5).
Checking in with The Upshot’s playoff simulator shows a narrow chance for Washington to make the postseason. Following Monday night’s loss, its chances for the playoffs dipped to 25 percent. If the Redskins beat Chicago, but lose to the Giants, their chances go down to two percent. The best-case scenario is to win both remaining games. That produces a 45 percent chance to get into the playoffs for back-to-back seasons. The Redskins have not done that since 1991-92.
“Well, we’re not in the playoffs,” Redskins coach Jay Gruden said. “So it’s up to one game at a time. We have to just focus on Chicago. I think a lot of times as men and as coaches we try to — the best way to put behind you something like this, a performance like this, coaching performance, playing performance, is playing again quickly. To get back out on the field and hopefully that will be a remedy for us come Saturday.”
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