Like many other people, I am getting discouraged by the current presidential primary season. My first pick was Gov. John Kasich, Ohio Republican, on the GOP side because of his proven record as a pragmatic conservative who gets things done. Then the Donald Trump phenomenon began. Then the Bernie Sanders saga began. Then every Republican who could spell “conservative” got into the race — long retired and sitting governors, business and professional people, junior senators — it was hard to keep track without a score card. The reassuring thing was that all seemed to be attractive, intelligent and capable. The Republican campaign was unfocused but exciting.
The Democrats had major problems. They had one candidate, and she was facing another in a long line of scandals. This one has dogged her ever since and gotten worse as more and more leaks come from the FBI. Then all of a sudden this very credible old guy named Sen. Bernie Sanders, Vermont Independent, begins to draw huge crowds and emerge as an alternative to Hillary Clinton. But he’s a Socialist!
The Republican campaign gradually began losing aspirants in January, one by one, until only three are left. It seems that whatever civility and gravitas was evident early on in candidates such as Carly Fiorina, Dr. Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and others began to depart right along with them.
The name-calling and personal attacks which had been part of the Trump persona from the beginning, now began to be highlighted in his every interview. His stump speech became so familiar that it became boring. More importantly, while always short on specifics, Mr. Trump seemed unable to move beyond heroic promises to address the complexities imbedded in America’s many challenges. Now, he has started to put some meat on the bones of his proposals, but so far his lack of discipline and precision in language has made for some alarming headlines.
As a businessman, Mr. Trump did not have to expect that his every word would be scrutinized by friends and foes alike. He always had the luxury of being able to keep on talking until his true meaning became clear.
But he now lives in a different world. It is a world which has reduced complex and nuanced statements of policy and preference to headlines and ten- second sound bites. These sound bites are continually twisted into lurid and extreme positions attributed to him by both press and rivals. Mr. Trump had better learn how to talk about sensitive issues with conciseness and clarity, or he will go down as a one-hit wonder — that being this election’s early Republican primary season.
The classic example of what can happen to a businessman who becomes a major political force and then fades into a spoiler — all in one election cycle — is the Ross Perot episode in 1992.
Ross Perot was a plain-talking businessman, who reached his zenith in presidential politics in the summer of 1992. Founder of a pioneering computer services firm, Mr. Perot was an energetic, colorful entrepreneur, who briefly captured the imagination of the American public. He advocated balancing the federal budget, defending the Second Amendment (freedom to carry guns), and reversingthe outsourcing of American jobs. He quickly became a potential candidate and soon polled even with the two major party candidates, President George H. W. Bush and Democrat William Clinton. At one point in June, Mr. Perot led the polls with 39 percent versus 31 percent for Mr. Bush and 25% for Mr. Clinton.
That was as good as it got for Mr. Perot. He became his own worst enemy, quarreling with his professional staff, firing advisors who had helped him, and, frustrated, dropped out of the race altogether in July. He then re-entered in October on his third party ticket.
Mr. Perot received 8.9 percent of the popular vote, nearly 20 million votes in the 1992 election and cost Mr. Bush re-election. Some analysts claim that his presence in the race took the same percentage of votes from each of the two major candidates, but no one will ever convince the Republicans of that. They are convinced that he was the reason the Democrats won that election.
Mr. Perot was an entertaining speaker, mainly for his plain talk, rather than eloquence. He eschewed what today is called “political correctness “He also touched a raw nerve with his description of “that giant sucking sound” of Mexico and Latin America taking American jobs. Had he been of a different temperament, he might well have become a major factor in American history. It was not to be.
Mr. Perot lost because he was unable to adjust quickly enough to the new world of politics in which he found himself. He was used to controlling events in the business world. His need to adapt to evolving events beyond his control — in his case, the endless details of qualifying as a bona fide Republican candidate — unnerved him and eventually led to disaster.
Can Mr. Trump avoid becoming another Mr. Perot? Perhaps – if he is willing to learn from his mistakes as well as his successes. His carelessness and thin-skinned lack of simple etiquette along with his seeming lack of interest in providing more of the “how” he intends to boost the economy, provide jobs, reduce the national debt, solve the immigration problems, fight terrorism at home, and defeat ISIS in the Middle East – has raised serious doubts about his suitability for the presidency.
To avoid becoming a footnote in the history of the 2016 election of the American president, Mr. Trump has to mature as a statesman, gather a group of respected advisors to brief him on the various issues, and perhaps authorize some position papers (without disclosing key bargaining points).
Now is the time to reassure the public that he would be a reasonable and responsible president. He must accept that the American people will not ultimately believe that he can do all the things he is promising on his word alone. They need to know how he is going to proceed, and then judge whether his strategies make sense. In spite of his popularity, American voters are not going to elect anyone they perceive as a casual or careless or uninformed guardian of their future.
The time has come for Mr. Trump to show the rest of us the “other Donald” he has revealed to Mr. Carson. Can he do it? Or will he join Mr. Perot as a presidential wannabe? We can only wait and watch.
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