OPINION:
Anti-Trump forces would like you to believe only the poor and uneducated vote for Donald Trump. Women too, they argue, could never cast their ballot for the so-called misogynistic businessman.
That’s simply untrue.
Let’s just look at the exit polling from New York – which by no means is the outlier in this Republican primary contest.
According to CNN exit polling, Mr. Trump won the woman vote by 57 percent, he won all ages, he won 69 percent of voters with a high school or less education, but also cleaned up 51 percent of those who have postgraduate degrees. Mr. Trump won 52 percent of the vote of those who earn less than $30,000 and 63 percent of the vote of those who earn $100,000 - $200,000 annually.
The New York results are not the exception to the rule – although some would like you to believe they are.
In Florida, Mr. Trump won all income brackets, swept all age groups, and won those with a college degree. He was victorious with women capturing 40 percent of the vote. He was only beat by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio among those who had postgraduate degrees and among the Cuban and Hispanic population.
In New Hampshire, Nevada, Massachusetts, Tennessee and Mississippi, Mr. Trump had a clean sweep in all demographics – much like in New York. Rich, poor, men, women, young, old, they all voted for him.
According to CNN exit polling, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Vermont, looked much the same, with Mr. Trump winning everything except those with postgraduate degrees (meaning, he did win some voters with college educations, just not masters degrees).
Yes, Mr. Trump was resoundingly beat in Texas, Ohio, and Wisconsin. But let’s take a closer look at those states – in Texas, Mr. Trump lost to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who all but gave up on other contests, having to dedicate the entire week prior to the state’s primary, campaigning in his home state to ensure a win.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich basically didn’t play in any of the states leading up to Ohio, dedicating all his time and effort between the New Hampshire primary and his home state in Ohio in order to secure his own victory there.
In Wisconsin, the anti-Trump forces were out in full-effect, running millions in negative advertisements, and all the conservative talk-radio hosts in the state were against Mr. Trump. In Iowa, where Mr. Trump also lost – albeit narrowly – the anti-Trump forces also played a part, along with the evangelical voting block which was predisposed to vote for Mr. Cruz.
Where Mr. Trump loses is with those more ideologically inclined – the so-called “true conservatives,” but that base either hasn’t shown up – or are trading in those values – with Republicans who “value an outsider” or “want somebody to tell it like it is ” – where Mr. Trump wins resoundingly.
Mr. Trump does need to extend further his outreach to women – they don’t show up as consistently for him in the polls as do white men, especially in urban areas where the education level is at the postgraduate degree.
Mr. Trump lost this demographic to Mr. Rubio in Virginia – especially in the counties closer to Washington DC – and in urban areas in Missouri and North Carolina. Mr. Trump lost Missouri, and came away with a narrower than expected wins in Virginia and North Carolina, largely because of this.
Bottom line?
There’s time for Mr. Trump to consolidate his base and get the Party to coalescence around him. He has the ability to reach out and win all demographics and that’s been proven in the contests he’s won so far.
Sorry, anti-trump forces, his base isn’t only white and poor, it’s also proven to be highly educated and rich.
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