OPINION:
Republican establishment, beware. If businessman Donald Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas is denied the party’s presidential nomination, their supporters are pledging a revolt.
According to an NBC poll released Tuesday, more than one-forth of Mr. Trump’s and Mr. Cruz’s supporters say they would vote for a third-party candidate in November if their man doesn’t become the Republican nominee.
In a theoretical general election contest between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Mr. Trump, 26 percent of Mr. Cruz’s supporters would vote for a third-party candidate, according to the survey. If the contest is between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Cruz, 28 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters would vote for a third-party candidate.
That’s a sizable number for both camps. The Republican Party needs all votes behind its nominee, not more than a quarter going toward a third-party candidate, which would surely hand the election to Mrs. Clinton.
Mr. Trump is winning in the Republican delegate count, with 742 to Mr. Cruz’s 529, according to the New York Times delegate tracker. Both qualify for the nomination under the Republican National Committee rules, which require candidates to come within a majority of delegates from at least eight states.
Yet, there is speculation within conservative circles of a “white knight” situation, in which a candidate more preferable to the Washington establishment (than either of the “outsiders,” Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz) will be chosen at the Republican National Convention, on the fourth or fifth vote. This would happen if neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Cruz is able to secure the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination outright.
Anyone nominated as the Republican candidate other than Mr. Cruz or Mr. Trump — according to their voters (which have propelled the men to victories in 31 of the 35 contests thus far) — would be unpalatable.
Establishment, take note.
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