Political analysts say he has a chance and polls show an opening for him, but Vice President Joseph R. Biden made clear last week that his decision to enter or skip the 2016 Democratic presidential primary is an emotional and moral one, and not dependent on his fundraising prowess or whether he can assemble a winning campaign.
Mr. Biden has said he’ll decide this month on a White House bid. There are questions about his ability to set up a high-level campaign operation — one capable of challenging party front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton’s juggernaut — just a few months before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.
But the vice president seems unconcerned by that challenge. He made clear last week that the main factor in his decision-making is whether he and his family have the “emotional energy” for a campaign just a few months after the death of Mr. Biden’s son, Beau.
Beau Biden, who had served as Delaware attorney general and had been seen as something of a rising star in the Democratic Party, died in May after a lengthy battle with brain cancer.
“I will be straightforward with you. The most relevant factor in my decision is whether my family and I have the emotional energy to run. Some might think that is inappropriate. Unless I can go to my party and the American people and say that I am able to devote my whole heart and my whole soul to this endeavor it would not be appropriate,” the vice president said during a question-and-answer session with Jewish leaders in Atlanta last week.
“And everybody talks about a lot of other factors — other people in the race, whether I can raise money and whether I can put together an organization. That’s not the factor,” he said. “The factor is, can I do it? Can my family undertake what is an arduous commitment that we’d be proud to undertake in ordinary circumstances? The honest-to-God answer is, I just don’t know.”
Even though Mrs. Clinton, Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders and other Democrats are months ahead of Mr. Biden in putting together a campaign, polls still show the vice president in third place, ahead of candidates such as former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb.
The most recent Real Clear Politics average of all primary polls showed Mr. Biden with the support of 16 percent of likely Democratic voters. He trails Mr. Sanders, with 23 percent, and Mrs. Clinton, at 49 percent.
Mr. Biden also comes in third in polls of likely Iowa caucus-goers.
But analysts say his prospects of success could increase dramatically if Mrs. Clinton continues to stumble.
Mrs. Clinton remains bogged down amid a steady stream of revelations about her exclusive use of private email server as secretary of state. It recently was revealed she sent unmarked, classified information using her personal account — something she previously had denied.
As a result, her favorability ratings have dropped. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released last week found that 53 percent of Americans say they view Mrs. Clinton unfavorably, up 8 points since midsummer.
Mr. Biden, meanwhile, is viewed unfavorably by 46 percent of Americans.
Should the vice president enter the race — and avoid the kinds of gaffes that have doomed his previous runs — he could capture the votes of Democrats who doubt Mrs. Clinton’s trustworthiness and aren’t sold on alternatives such as Mr. Sanders, according to Mattherw Dallek, assistant professor of political management at George Washington University.
“A lot of people will be looking at his poll numbers once he starts campaigning. If it seems he’s becoming competitive, especially in early states I think that kind of builds on itself. More money, more momentum, more people wanting to work for him,” Mr. Dallek said. “The opening created by Hillary Clinton’s ongoing email woes, I think, is still very much there. I’m not saying it would be easy. I think it’s still a very long shot.”
Mr. Biden also has demonstrated his aware that the Democratic nominee must garner at least some support among hard-core progressives — the voters who see populist Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Democrat, as an iconic figure and have helped propel Mr. Sanders, a self-proclaimed socialist, in the polls.
Mr. Biden met with Ms. Warren late last month in Washington, a meeting widely seen as an attempt by the vice president to take the pulse of the left wing of the Democratic Party.
“We had lunch. We talked about policy. We talked about what’s happening to America’s middle class It was a good, long, rambly policy conversation,” Ms. Warren said last week when describing her sit-down with the vice president.
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.
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