President Obama is set to receive an official, albeit reluctant nod of approval for the Iran nuclear deal when Saudi Arabia’s new king visits the White House for the first time Friday, but analysts say it will come at a price as Riyadh seeks Washington’s support for its increasingly anti-Iran foreign policy in the Middle East.
Mr. Obama’s meeting with King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud comes as debate over the nuclear deal rages in Washington and three more Senate Democrats — Mark Warner of Virginia, Cory Booker of New Jersey and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota — threw their support behind the agreement Thursday, inching the administration closer to avoiding an ugly veto fight to preserve the accord.
The divisions in Washington serve as a backdrop as Mr. Obama tries to shore up U.S.-Saudi relations, which have been bruised by a host of factors during recent years, including Riyadh’s criticism of the administration’s withdrawal from the Middle East just as the region faced turmoil from the Arab Spring uprisings that began in 2011.
The U.S. push for the Iran deal only added to the strain — sending speculation soaring across the Arab world that Washington was moving away from its decade-old alliance with Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia in favor of a diplomatic thaw with Riyadh’s main regional rival — the Shiite-dominated government in Iran.
Saudi Arabia, backed by its vast oil wealth and reserve, has pursued an increasingly activist foreign policy that now features support for insurgent forces in Syria, as well as a proxy war against Iran-backed rebels in Yemen.
But analysts say that despite some key differences, the U.S.-Saudi connection remains solid.
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir has already expressed the kingdom’s willingness to accept the Iran nuclear deal, despite its misgivings on Tehran and a larger frustration with what it sees as a passive U.S. approach to the region under Mr. Obama.
“Both nations are close strategic partners in spite of their differences, and both states need each other,” said Anthony Cordesman, a longtime Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic International Studies in Washington.
King Salman’s visit will likely end in “some kind of public statement that puts as positive a spin as possible on the meeting,” Mr. Cordesman told Agence France-Presse.
“This is more of an atmospheric summit than a policy summit,” added F. Gregory Gause, a Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula expert who heads the international affairs department at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service.
“This is about America telling the Saudis we still love them, and the Saudis saying, ’Even though we’ve been flirting with the French and everyone else, we still love America too,’” Mr. Gause told The Washington Times.
“The Saudis don’t like the Iran deal, but this summit signals that they are accepting it — dealing with it and moving forward in an effort to get the U.S. to cooperate with them on limiting and rolling back Iranian influence in the Arab world.”
Emboldened policy
More pointedly, Riyadh wants more aggressive U.S. backing for its efforts to confront what it sees as Iran’s proxies fighting in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Saudi involvement in Syria and Yemen specifically, has been the centerpiece of an emboldened foreign policy since 79-year-old King Salman ascended to the throne following the death of ailing King Abdullah in January.
Ahead of Friday’s meeting, Jamal Khashoggi, head of al-Arab News Channel, owned by Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, told Reuters that the U.S.-Saudi “relationship is entering a new phase.”
“It is still a partnership,” said Mr. Khashoggi, “but Saudi Arabia is becoming more independent. And I think the Americans like that. They are not objecting to our active foreign policy, but cooperating with us on that front.”
But the two sides face a tall task in overcoming differences on certain key policy fronts, including a resolution to Syria’s four-year-old civil war.
Mr. Gause said the two sides are “still relatively far apart” on a clear strategy for driving Syrian President Bashar Assad from power while also defeating Islamic State extremists who have taken hold in the nation.
During a conference call with reporters this week, President Obama’s deputy national security sdviser Ben Rhodes said the Saudis have “obviously been a part” of the U.S.-led coalition to combat the Islamic State, also known as ISIS and ISIL.
But Mr. Rhodes acknowledged there are differences over whom to support in the fight on the ground against the extremists.
“We want to make sure that we have a common view in terms of which opposition deserves our support,” he said.
“We’re seeking to isolate more extremist elements of the opposition and that’s been an ongoing conversation with Saudi Arabia,” Mr. Rhodes added.
But analysts note that Saudi Arabia, along with Qatar and Turkey, is arming and funding a rebel coalition in Syria that includes fighters from the Nusra Front — a group Washington has refused to back because it is widely seen as al Qaeda’s main affiliate in Syria.
Away from Syria, Mr. Rhodes said the Obama administration anticipates the Saudis will express support for the Iran nuclear deal. But he acknowledged that the Saudis have “expressed concerns about Iranian activities in the region, which are understandable, given Iran’s destabilizing actions.”
Critics have cited the skepticism of the Gulf Arab states led by Saudi Arabia and the outright opposition of Israel as key reasons to reject the Iran nuclear deal. Mr. Cordesman said Mr. Obama will likely take pains to tell the Saudi king that the U.S. is committed to enforcing the deal once it’s in place and that Washington stands ready to help Riyadh and other states in the region counter Iran’s conventional military threats.
Mr. Obama’s hand in the talks was considerably strengthened this week as the White House obtained the bare minimum Senate votes needed to sustain his veto of any congressional rejection of the Iran deal.
The veto threat itself may prove unnecessary as the number of Democrats supporting the deal now numbers 37 following Thursday’s announcements by the three Democratic lawmakers. With four more votes, Democrats could filibuster the rejection motion in the Senate and avoid a veto fight altogether. Several of the seven undecided Senate Democrats are reportedly leaning toward supporting Mr. Obama.
• Guy Taylor can be reached at gtaylor@washingtontimes.com.
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