Donald Trump has padded his lead, Ben Carson has surged, and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry has quit the race for the GOP presidential nomination as voters increasingly have looked for an anti-politician champion in the month since the first Republican candidates’ debate.
The second GOP debate looms Wednesday, and the remaining 15 major candidates who will be on CNN’s stage at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, are trying to figure out how to harness — or deflect — that anti-establishment sentiment.
“I think broadly the nonconventional, nonofficeholder candidates are clearly in the ascendancy, and the establishment candidates are sliding — or at least trying to tread water,” said Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania-based GOP strategist who is advising the only woman among the top candidates, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. “It is pretty obvious that the electorate is not only angry, they are downright PO’d, and they are really fed up with the political class and the D.C. establishment, and they are letting their voices be heard.”
Mr. Perry, who served 14 years as governor of Texas, was the first casualty, failing to catch on with voters and even falling short of his flameout run in 2012.
But other officeholders also have suffered: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul have seen their poll numbers slip, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee also has lost some ground.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich have edged up, while Florida Sen. Marco Rubio continues to run in the middle of the pack. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has landed around the 10th spot.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump not only hasn’t hit the ceiling many analysts predicted for him but has lengthened his lead in the RealClearPolitics.com average of national polls, from 24 percent in early August to 30 percent now.
Polling shows Mr. Carson’s support has tripled from 5.8 percent to 16 percent, and Ms. Fiorina has gone from barely registering to securing 5 percent.
CNN announced last week that Ms. Fiorina is among the 11 candidates who will qualify for the prime-time debate.
Relegated to the preliminary debate are former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and former New York Gov. George Pataki. Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore won’t be part of either debate, as his polling lags too far behind.
With about five months to go until the Iowa caucuses kick off the primary season, former Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis said that Ms. Fiorina has emerged as an “early winner” and that Mr. Trump “remains the wild card.”
“Is he real or is his campaign a fluke?” Mr. Anuzis said, adding that the race is still very much unsettled, with Messrs. Bush, Rubio, Walker and Kasich battling it out for the establishment mantle, and Messrs. Cruz, Carson and Huckabee vying for the conservative mantle.
“If the long shot candidates who don’t seem to be getting any steam can’t break out in some way, their campaigns could start to fall by the wayside,” Mr. Anuzis said. “So far, no surprises, but I expect some to ’throw the long ball’ as they try to get back into the race.”
One of those “Hail Mary” throwers is Mr. Jindal, who is trying to ride Mr. Trump’s coattails back into the race by attacking the billionaire businessman at every turn, seeking the media exposure that brings.
Matt Schlapp, American Conservative Union chairman, said that Mr. Trump has proved his naysayers wrong so far.
“I am excited to stop having a conversation about whether he is a real candidate and start to talk about what he wants to do and what the other candidates want to do,” Mr. Schlapp said.
Since the August debate Mr. Trump has laid out a six-page immigration plan that calls for reducing legal immigration, requiring all illegal immigrants to leave the country before allowing them to re-enter legally, building a border fence and eliminating birthright citizenship for children born to illegal immigrants.
Mr. Bush called the plan unrealistic, while Mr. Santorum said Mr. Trump’s plans sound like a copy of what he had been saying all along.
Mr. Walker, meanwhile, stumbled through his response, initially endorsing Mr. Trump’s calls for ending the policy of granting automatic citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants and then backing off his comments.
“The Trump bubble has deprived many candidates of oxygen in this already-crowded field, but since the last debate, there’s one candidate who stands out to me as losing the most: Scott Walker,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “His polling lead in Iowa has vanished, and he has had nothing but missteps since then.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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