Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has maintained his grip on the race for the 2016 GOP nomination in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson performs best among the Republicans in general election match-ups, according to polling released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University.
“Those who were waiting for Donald Trump’s campaign to collapse will need to wait longer — at least in the three key states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Mr. Trump led the GOP field in Florida with 28 percent — up from 21 percent in August. Mr. Carson was next at 16 percent, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 14 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 12 percent, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina at 7 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 6 percent.
Though Mr. Trump led the field, 29 percent of Republicans also said they would “definitely not” support him.
Mr. Trump also had a negative 35 percent/57 percent favorable/unfavorable split among general election voters, with 54 percent of voters saying he is not honest and trustworthy.
Mr. Trump trailed Vice President Joseph R. Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont by 14 points, 5 points, and 5 points, respectively. Mr. Carson, meanwhile, trailed Mr. Biden by 3 points, trailed Mrs. Clinton by 2 points and beat Mr. Sanders by 6 points — better margins than any other Republican.
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In Ohio, Mr. Trump was at 23 percent among Republicans, compared to 21 percent in August. Mr. Carson was at 18 percent, followed by native son Gov. John Kasich at 13 percent, Mr. Cruz at 11 percent, Mrs. Fiorina at 10 percent, Mr. Rubio at 7 percent and Mr. Bush at 4 percent.
Twenty-nine percent of Republicans in Ohio said they would definitely not support Mr. Trump.
Among general election voters there, he had a negative 34 percent/58 percent favorable/unfavorable split, and 54 percent of voters said he is not honest and trustworthy.
Mr. Carson led Mr. Biden, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Sanders by 4 points, 9 points and 12 points, respectively, while Mr. Trump trailed in all three match-ups.
In Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump was at 23 percent among Republicans, compared to 24 percent in August. Mr. Carson was next at 17 percent, followed by Mr. Rubio at 12 percent, Mrs. Fiorina at 8 percent, Mr. Cruz at 6 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 5 percent, and Mr. Bush and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 4 percent each.
Thirty-one percent of Republicans in the state said they would definitely not support Mr. Trump. Among voters overall, he had a 36 percent/56 percent favorable/unfavorable split and 54 percent of voters said he is not honest and trustworthy.
Mr. Carson led Mr. Biden, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Sanders by 5 points, 9 points, and 10 points, respectively, while Mr. Trump trailed in all three match-ups.
From Sept. 25 to Oct. 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
• 1,173 Florida voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 461 Republicans with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
• 1,180 Ohio voters with a margin of error of plus or minus percentage points. The survey includes 433 Republicans with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
• 1,049 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey includes 427 Republicans with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
• David Sherfinski can be reached at dsherfinski@washingtontimes.com.
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