OPINION:
Hovering over Vladimir Putin’s reckless adventurism in Syria is the shadow of Islamic demographics. His Russian Federation is at the risk of Muslim numbers, fast accelerating.
The mushrooming Muslim population in Russia is part and parcel of the Russian leader’s whirling-dervish act to resurrect Moscow as the capital of a superpower. It explains, in some measure, Mr. Putin’s desperate attempt to bring back under Moscow control the Slavs of Ukraine, Byelorussia, and the Baltic states.
When Mr. Putin recently presided over the opening of one of the world’s largest mosques in Moscow, it was a tacit acknowledgment of growing Muslim power and influence in the Federation. The gesture was meant to forge a compact with the Russian regime, modeled after the ties that connect the Kremlin — and Mr. Putin — to the Russian Orthodox Church.
Ravil Gaynutdin, head of the Council of Muftis, the “official” leader of the Muslims, said in 2005 that of Russia’s 144 million, 23 million were ethnic Muslims. Some estimates put the number of Muslims at 3 million in the Moscow area, of a population of 13 million.
The Muslim numbers take on additional significance given that the Russian population is in sharp decline. It reached a tipping point at 148.6 million in 1991, declining to a projected number of less than 130 million by 2025. While the Russian Federation’s Muslim population is not yet reproducing itself at a sustainable rate, it is considerably higher than that of the Slavs.
When Mr. Putin called up an additional 150,000 conscripts to dispatch to Syria, he had to face a Russian general staff estimate that by 2025 most of his new soldiers will be Muslims. But his growing jingo domestic appeal, and in part the basis of his popularity, is to traditional Russian and Orthodox Christian loyalties. These are certain to clash with the cultural and religious loyalties of the Muslims.
The Russian leader’s unreliable puppet, Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman president of Chechnya, has called on Mr. Putin to expand operations in Syria, “using Muslim ground troops.” But on his way to conflict with the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, the Russian leader opens his campaign against the rebels fighting against Bashar Assad. He thumbs his nose at Barack Obama and mocks the sanctions against Russia for its flagrant aggression in Ukraine.
Against the confusion and disarray of the Western allies, encouraged by the lack of American leadership, Mr. Putin has emerged as a skilled strategist against what is little more than a junior varsity. His appeal to certain Europeans and frustrated Americans, who might be tempted to try to live with the worst of the Arab dictatorships, frightens America’s traditional allies in the region. President Obama’s deal with Iran and President Putin’s deal with the tyranny in Damascus is good news for nobody, and least of all for the United States.
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