There was never a time when support for Donald Trump wasn’t conditional in Iowa.
Yet for the longest while, the only condition he had to meet for many Republicans was continuously knee-capping the loathsome GOP establishment. It didn’t matter Trump has a history of supporting liberal policies, or even that his debate performances lacked substance let alone weren’t stellar.
It was early, the establishment deserved to be de-panted, and Trump was fun. A people used to the seedy and unprincipled machinations of John Boehner and Mitch McConnell, not to mention the flaccidness of recent Republican presidential nominees Mitt Romney and John McCain, needed a vacation from GOP Failure Theater.
Ultimately, though, Iowans were going to need more. The Incredible Hulk is a fantastic ally when you catch him in the right mood, but a reckless gamble on other days—which makes him more of a force of nature than a hero. So it appears to be for Mr. Trump.
Trump 2016 was never going to be a cult of personality run wild. There are simply too many substantive issues at stake. Not the least of which is the very future of the country. Everyone agrees we need to “make America great again.” But the hero was always going to be the candidate who proved he knew what once made America exceptional in the first place.
If nothing else, this is the warning shot Iowans just launched across Mr. Trump’s bow last week based on the results of the latest polls. Yes, I have opined at length in recent months about what a poor job the polls do of measuring actual voter preferences and performance, but the stark and sizeable change in Mr. Trump’s momentum in this particular case is noteworthy.
Iowans’ patience with Mr. Trump seems to be wearing thin. Based on the current trend line, the gap between Mr. Trump and third-place Ted Cruz is drawing closer than the one between him and his replacement in the pole position Ben Carson. And this has all happened after an entire quarter of Mr. Trump dominating the media coverage to boot, so he can’t blame a lack of attention.
So what happened?
Mr. Trump – who suddenly said he doesn’t trust the polls after relentlessly championing them when he was in the lead – was uncertain enough about the answer to that question that he reflexively blurted out this ridiculous tweet before quickly blaming an intern for doing it and then deleting it:
“#BenCarson is now leading in the #polls in #Iowa … Too much #Monsanto in the #corn creates issues in the brain?”
Because nothing kills a populist uprising quite like firing off a “don’t you hayseeds know how fabulous I am” blast from Manhattan.
What’s happened here is Mr. Trump has made the mistake of believing his success was really about the voters making it about him, when it was the other way around. See, Mr. Trump had all the same chutzpah and brashness when he was talking about China and trade policy, but almost nobody cared. It wasn’t until he connected with the illegal immigration issue that then his alpha male personality became a hit on the campaign trail. Mr. Trump, the ultimate 1 percenter, suddenly became a man of the people because he was willing to listen to everyday Americans fed up with the lawless, open borders scheming of their elites.
However, while that is a big issue and maybe even the biggest to some, it is still only one issue. Mr. Trump’s messaging to the GOP base on pretty much every other issue seems to vary pretty much every other day. One day we should shut the government down to stop funding the baby butchers at Planned Parenthood, but the next day they do some great things. One day the Iran deal is the worst deal Trump’s ever seen negotiated, but the next day he refuses to kill it once he’s president. One day Mr. Trump is calling out feckless GOP leadership, but the next day he’s got the back of Mr. Amnesty Paul Ryan for House speaker.
Oh, and nobody really knows where he stands on the emerging issue of this cycle — religious liberty.
I write all this as someone who knows Mr. Trump, likes him, and has previously spoken and written much in support of his dismantling on the GOP establishment-liberal media cabal. And I still believe that regardless of how his presidential run turns out, conservatives owe Mr. Trump a debt of gratitude for that effort. Only a force of nature, like the Incredible Hulk, was going to be capable of clearing of such a path.
Except what we really need now is Captain America. A hero whose primary motive is to do the right thing because, well, it’s the right thing to do.
Can Mr. Trump be the hero? That’s up to him. A hero fights for a cause, not himself, and the cause is one higher than just self. I’m worried for Mr. Trump based on how we’ve seen him react so far to the news of Mr. Carson’s surge. Frankly he’s been petty and defensive. More reality television star than president.
The truth is Mr. Trump gave up control of his own destiny. Various factions frequently at odds with one another within the GOP were willing to let him pull the sword from the stone. All Mr. Trump had to do to prove himself worthy was show he wasn’t just a one-trick pony on illegal immigration. Take up the fight on other issues of existential importance to a culture. Unfortunately, he has failed to do so. Now he has a fellow outsider who’s grown bolder on the campaign trail (Carson), as well as a fellow revolutionary with far more conservative street cred (Cruz), to contend with.
Of course, none of this is to say it’s all over for Mr. Trump in Iowa, if for no other reason that he’s not a billionaire for nothing. He’s a smart guy and can figure this out, if he’s willing to and willing to listen to the people who don’t always tell him how yuuuuge he is. Furthermore, if a disappointment in the first-in-the-nation caucus state is immediately followed by a win in New Hampshire, who knows what happens from there?
But with both Mr. Carson and Mr. Cruz gaining momentum, as well as Marco Rubio poised and ready to inherit the establishment’s blessing following the imminent demise of Jeb Bush, Mr. Trump is hearing footsteps like never before in this campaign.
(Steve Deace is a nationally-syndicated talk show host and also the author of the new book “Rules for Patriots: How Conservatives Can Win Again.” You can “like” him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter @SteveDeaceShow.)
Please read our comment policy before commenting.