BUENOS AIRES — The stunning virtual tie in Sunday’s presidential election here suggests the populist ruling coalition founded by Cristina Kirchner and her late husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner, may see its long grip on power crumble when the term-limited incumbent leaves the Casa Rosada, Argentina’s White House, on Dec. 10.
Pollsters had widely expected Argentines to hand the presidency to Daniel Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires province and Ms. Fernandez’s handpicked heir, effectively extending the Kirchners’ 12-year reign. Instead, the unexpectedly strong showing of their longtime nemesis, pro-business Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, has forced a runoff and fueled what one commentator called a “social revolution against Kirchnerism” that could well lead to a long, unheard-of center-right victory in South America.
“These results are a very positive outcome for Macri and a big disappointment for Scioli,” Credit Suisse economist Casey Reckman wrote in a note to clients Monday. Given the way he won the expectations game, Mr. Macri “will likely have stronger momentum going in to the next month of campaigning thanks to yesterday’s outcome.”
Sunday’s result may even reverberate beyond Argentina’s borders as other leftist leaders in the hemisphere, such as Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro*, are increasingly coming under fire and seeing their power threatened for the first time in years.
“People are tired of this kind of populism” often linked to a high level of corruption, said Marcelo Camusso, who heads the political science department at the Catholic University of Argentina.
The most important figure in Argentina’s Nov. 22 runoff, though, may not be Mr. Macri nor Mr. Scioli, but Sergio Massa — Sunday’s third-place finisher — who for now seems to hold the keys to the presidential palace.
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Like Mr. Scioli, Mr. Massa forms part of the larger Peronist movement and once served as Cabinet chief early on in Ms. Fernandez’ administration. But the mayor of a Buenos Aires suburb has since turned into a vociferous critic of the incumbent, accusing her of unjust tax policies, widespread corruption and a failure to rein in violent crime and drug traffickers.
Wooing Massa
That mixed political heritage meant that both Mr. Macri and Mr. Scioli on Monday immediately laid claim to the 21 percent of votes Mr. Massa had captured in Sunday’s first round. “I feel that they think the same as us here,” Mr. Macri said about Mr. Massa’s supporters. “He also took a position for change.”
Massa backers were “much farther away from Macri than from us,” Mr. Scioli countered hours later. But for the Fernandez heir, reaching out too far to the Peronist “dissident” would invariably force a break with the Kirchnerist orthodoxy, a dangerous game that cuts into his own base, said Mariano de Vedia, a political commentator for the La Nacion daily.
“Scioli appears very weakened. It is unlikely that he can improve his performance” Mr. de Vedia said. “He faces a dilemma; I do not think he is capable” of breaking with Ms. Fernandez.
The governor himself seemed to acknowledge his conundrum Monday as he tried to shift attention to a proposed televised debate with Mr. Macri, an encounter he had previously ruled out by arguing that his positions were well known. The Buenos Aires mayor almost immediately took his rival up on the challenge, and his Cambiemos (“Let’s Change”) coalition said Mr. Macri had never shied away from such a debate.
Mr. Scioli’s change of heart, meanwhile, came after Vice Mayor Maria Eugenia Vidal, Mr. Macri’s second in command in the capital, was confirmed to have won the gubernatorial election in Buenos Aires to succeed Mr. Scioli — the first non-Peronist governor there since 1987.
“This was a truly historic event [that] will produce an enormous change in Argentine politics,” Mr. Camusso predicted.
Critics had repeatedly accused Ms. Vidal’s challenger, none other than Ms. Fernandez’s Cabinet chief, Anibal Fernandez, of ties to organized crime, and the unpopular hard-liner’s nomination may have been too much even for the president’s backers. Mr. Camusso said the message to Ms. Fernandez was: “We follow you, but we are not going to follow you anywhere.”
Mr. Massa, meanwhile, has so far kept mum on which candidate — if any — he might endorse in the coming runoff.
“In three weeks Argentines will have to choose a new path,” he told the crowd at his election night rally. “We know the role we play. In the next hours we will get together [to announce] what we are going to do.”
But how he aligns his loyalties may depend less on ideology and more on his personal ambitions, said Joaquin Morales Sola, a prominent columnist with La Nacion. Mr. Massa stands to emerge as the unchallenged leader of the Peronist movement if Mr. Scioli — and, by extension, Ms. Fernandez — were to lose in November.
“It is in Massa’s interest that Macri be president,” Mr. Morales Sola said.
“Massa can be an important guide for a disoriented and beaten Peronism,” Mr. Camusso agreed.
Not all of his backers may comply with a likely Massa endorsement, Mr. Morales Sola said. Still, the vast majority of Argentines, who in 2011 reelected Ms. Fernandez with 54 percent of votes, this time preferred opposition candidates. “I don’t know where [Mr. Scioli] is going to get [that] 15 percent he needs to win the runoff,” he said. “To me, he is in a very complicated situation.”
Argentina’s long-suffering investors, meanwhile, seemed delighted with the prospect of a Macri victory. The Argentine Business Association praised the vote and — in thinly veiled criticism of Ms. Fernandez’ autocratic style — called on leaders to “deepen the dialogue between all stakeholders” so as to propel “the social and economic development of our country.”
*Due to an editing error, the first name of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was incorrectly given in the original version of this story. It has been corrected.
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