J.T. YOUNG: How Obama ducks responsibility

OPINION:

The Federal Reserve is President Obama’s last chance for ducking responsibility for America’s weak economy. For seven years, Mr. Obama and Democrats have blamed George W. Bush and Republicans for an economy that has underperformed throughout this administration. With that excuse growing ever less plausible, and an election looming, Mr. Obama and Democrats need a new economic excuse; higher interest rates from the Fed offers them just that.

The latest employment report showing 271,000 jobs created and a 5 percent unemployment rate is being taken by many Fed watchers as evidence that an increase in interest rates is on the way in December. Should it happen, it would be the first rate increase since June, 2006 and end a seven-year stretch of almost 0 percent rates. It could also offer a jolt to a still slow U.S. economy.

Financial markets will be nervously watching to see the economy’s reaction to a tighter monetary policy. And they won’t be alone. Politicians, especially the White House, will be keeping a careful eye on it too.

Democrats are right to be concerned, because Mr. Obama has an economic record they are right to be worried about.

Before the latest job figures came out, the latest U.S. GDP figures came in low again at just 1.5 percent in the third quarter. Averaged with the year’s two earlier quarters, 2015 shows just 2 percent growth, making it another weak year to go along with Mr. Obama’s previous six weak ones.

Averaging all of Mr. Obama’s years together, the administration’s real GDP growth average is a bleak 1.3 percent. Even dropping 2009’s contraction out, Mr. Obama’s six-year “recovery” average is just 2 percent — that puts Mr. Obama ahead of only Harry Truman (who had WWII’s demilitarization happen during his presidency) since 1932.

Amazingly, these tepid performances came despite the aforementioned historically low interest rates, large federal spending hikes, a more than doubled federal debt, and falling energy prices.

Together this low performance despite high so-called “stimulus” make for nothing to write home about — and more importantly to 2016 Democrats, nothing conducive to run on.

For the entirety of Mr. Obama’s term, the White House has run away from these failing figures by blaming them on his predecessor. In short, to hear the administration tell it, Mr. Obama’s economy has been Mr. Bush’s fault. Just how Mr. Bush’s actions — or even the financial crisis now six years removed — is still doing this goes unexplained. When you are running away from what has been the nation’s Number One concern for almost a decade, explanations are an unaffordable luxury.

But like the fairy tale of the emperor’s new clothes, you can only stroll naked for so long without somebody saying something. And the economy’s sullen sojourn has been a long walk indeed, and 2016 is the perfect time for American voters to speak up about there being so little “there” there. So the Obama White House finds itself in a bind: A stubbornly poor economy, its old excuse of blaming Mr. Bush long ago used up, and an election approaching to pronounce the final verdict on his presidency. How does Barack “Houdini” Obama get out of this one? Enter the Fed.

While economists may worry increased about interest rates’ impact, White House political strategists should be anything but. The Fed’s impending move sets up a no-lose situation for Mr. Obama.

If the economy handles a rate hike without problem, and performs better than it has over the last seven years — not a terribly tall order — then of course Mr. Obama takes credit for it. If this happens, he can be expected to take extra credit due to the increased difficulty factor of overcoming the rate hike.

If on the other hand, the economy fails to perform better than it has over the last seven years — well, America already has become accustomed to that. And if the last seven years are any indication, the economy would probably have not performed too well anyway under the current policies in place. In the event of failure, the reward arising from earned low expectations kicks in and is bolstered by a new excuse: Now it’s the Fed’s fault. Considering Mr. Obama’s record, far from being an economic setback, a Fed move to raise interest rates next month could offer his best political escape. It’s a no-lose situation for Mr. Obama politically, just like the last seven have been no-win ones economically for America.

• J.T. Young served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004 and as a congressional staff member from 1987 to 2000.