BUENOS AIRES — Just days before Argentina’s presidential runoff vote, center-right Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri has emerged as the unlikely front-runner as voters appear poised to turn the page on the 12-year rule of populist incumbent Cristina Fernandez and her late husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner.
A Macri win in the continent’s second most populous country would mark the first major electoral defeat for the leftist governments that have dominated South America for the better part of a decade. A member of a prominent family of entrepreneurs, the opposition leader would likely embark on a more market-friendly course and aim to improve Argentina’s strained ties with Washington.
Anticipating a U-turn in foreign policy, Mr. Macri said in Sunday’s final debate with Daniel Scioli, Ms. Fernandez’s handpicked heir, that he would ask the Mercosur trade bloc to suspend Venezuela over the “abuses” of leftist President Nicolas Maduro, whom he accused of holding “political prisoners” and fostering “military participation” in government.
Ms. Fernandez — a close personal friend and admirer of Mr. Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez — had long counted the Venezuelan leader as one of her key allies and routinely accused the U.S. of interfering in the internal affairs of their countries. She is barred from running again after eight years in the Casa Rosada, Argentina’s executive mansion.
Critics of the outgoing Argentine president have warned that her policies might lead to a Venezuelan-style economic meltdown, and Mr. Macri has argued that tight currency controls have failed to quell capital flight in both countries.
His arguments appear to be finding an audience.
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In an opinion poll published Nov. 13 by the Clarin daily, Mr. Macri holds an 8-point lead over Mr. Scioli, the governor of the Buenos Aires region. With opposition parties largely coalescing around the challenger, the former president of the Boca Juniors soccer club has held similar advantages in nine out of 10 surveys conducted since he came in a close second Oct. 25 in the first round of the election.
What had been a lackluster campaign has turned into a fiery duel between the candidates, with Mr. Macri assailing his rival’s deep ties to the increasingly unpopular president and Mr. Scioli warning that a Macri win would invariably end in a doomsday scenario of brutal spending cuts, fiscal austerity and concessions to Argentina’s foreign creditors.
Most observers now believe that the election is Mr. Macri’s to lose, in part because Mr. Scioli faces a dilemma in trying to win over voters critical of Ms. Fernandez without offending his own base, said Joaquin Morales Sola of the La Nacion daily.
In interviews and TV spots, the candidate of the Peronist Front for Victory coalition attempted that balancing act, promising to be “more Scioli than ever” and acknowledging voters’ “anger” over the recent record of the government.
Still, “it is going to be very difficult for Scioli,” Mr. Morales Sola said.
“Sixty percent of society has asked for a change,” he said. “That is what has provoked such a change in the scenario.”
SEE ALSO: Cristina Fernandez, Argentina’s outgoing president, determined to protect legacy, clout
Jab-filled debate
Sunday’s jab-filled debate, meanwhile, may only have solidified the situation as both candidates largely stuck to their guns. Predictably, Mr. Macri never tired of comparing his rival to Ms. Fernandez during the clash, attacking what he said was her abrasive and authoritarian governing style.
“What have you turned into, Daniel? What have they turned you into? ” the mayor asked at one point. “… We need a president who talks less and listens more, who does press conferences and not televised statements, who understands the value of the team and not [a] personality cult.”
A fidgeting Mr. Scioli, meanwhile, accused his challenger of trying to camouflage his supposed commitment to obey a U.S. judge’s order to pay off foreign bondholders of Argentina’s debt instead of investing the money at home, a potent issue in Argentina.
“Either we again kneel before Judge Griesa or we have an Argentine development bank,” he said. “It is either the International Monetary Fund that once again dominates us, or it is Argentine pride and Argentine self-esteem.”
Mr. Scioli’s tone was in line with what critics have dubbed his “scare campaign” linking Mr. Macri’s policy proposals to those that caused the 2001 economic meltdown and the ensuing civil unrest and devaluation — still fresh in the memories of many Argentines.
“Do you imagine yourself without a roof? Do you imagine the hunger? Do you image [what happens] if Macri wins?” asked a TV spot for the 58-year-old former powerboat racer set to footage of riots, looting and homeless vagrants scavenging through garbage.
But Mr. Scioli’s tactics so far have not paid off in the polls, in part, perhaps, because Mr. Macri largely refused to take the bait and instead chose to mock the apocalyptic warnings.
“My daughter, Antonia, came to me to ask if it was true that Kinder Eggs would no longer have surprises from Dec. 10 if I won,” he said, referring to a popular chocolate candy that contains a gift. ” We have to move away from the idea that fear is what governs us.”
Analysts say Mr. Macri has cannily tapped into voter fatigue with the country’s grinding economic and currency crises and struck a chord with those put off by what they view as Ms. Fernandez’s governing style and lack of respect for the country’s institutions, said Facundo Cruz, a political scientist at the University of Buenos Aires.
“The citizenry asks that it is time to change the form of doing politics,” Mr. Cruz said, noting that the still-unexplained January death of federal prosecutor Alberto Nisman and the president’s meddling in the judiciary left many Argentines uncomfortable.
Leaders from Mr. Marci’s PRO party, founded just 10 years ago, will soon govern both the Argentine capital and the surrounding Buenos Aires province — home to about half of the country’s population. So if the 56-year-old capitalizes on his lead and captures the presidency Sunday, it would mark a historic political shift for the country, Mr. Morales Sola said.
“It would demonstrate that one can win without Peronism,” he said.
Although he views Mr. Macri as the front-runner, Mr. Cruz cautioned that voters could deliver a Truman-versus-Dewey moment despite the polls.
“[Mr. Scioli’s allies] still have a very strong territorial base,” he said. “Argentine politics is always good for a surprise.”
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