GOP debate: What to watch for Tuesday night in Milwaukee

Tuesday night is the GOP’s fourth presidential debate, and things have surely changed since their first outing in August. Although Donald Trump is still the front-runner, neurosurgeon Ben Carson is closing ranks and even besting the real-estate mogul in some polls, and a solid middle-tier of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has arisen.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who seemed like the enviable candidate when he announced this summer, and his campaign is in salvation mode, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who made a big splash coming out of the first two debates, has fallen back into obscurity.

Here are five things to look out for in Tuesday night’s Milwaukee debate:

Will Ben Carson be redeemed?

It’s been a rough week for the retired neurosurgeon with several top news outlets taking shots at him in an attempt to shed light on his biography and garner questions about his candidacy. Mr. Carson has largely debunked the attacks, staging his own news conference last week.

Still, The New York Times ran an opinion piece Monday repeating the same (largely disputed narrative) that Mr. Carson had lied about his scholarship to West Point, and cable news networks are still harping on the discrepancies.

Will the Fox Business moderators dig in further on these reports, or strictly focus on his economic plans? Will other candidates use the reports to take swipes at Mr. Carson in an attempt to bring down the front-runner? And how will Mr. Carson handle it all?

Can Jeb Bush turn things around?

Mr. Bush has told reporters his preparation for Tuesday night’s debate is not to prepare. After receiving the least talking minutes in the last debate hosted by CNBC as well as being largely schooled by rival Mr. Rubio in that performance, Mr. Bush needs a big night to resuscitate his campaign, the public’s faith in him, donors confidence and to establish himself as a front-runner (or even in the upper echelon of candidates).

Mr. Bush said he was spending less time rehearsing answers and plans to treat the debate as more of a candidate forum to present his ideas.

Will Ted Cruz turn in another spirited performance?

Mr. Cruz stood out at the CNBC debate by taking on the moderators and media for the unfair questioning and treatment of the candidates during the last debate — giving him one of the few soundbites that resonated with the audience and was replayed by the cable news shows repeatedly in the next news cycle. As a result of his performance, Mr. Cruz vaulted himself into the upper-tier of candidates.

What was so unique about the CNBC performance was Mr. Cruz had, up until that point, remained largely in the background, relying on his grassroots support and stump speeches to gather momentum rather than the debates.

Will Mr. Cruz try to repeat his CNBC performance and be a standout? Or will he fade into the background like previous debates, not making a mistake, but not garnering the headlines, either? How will his poll numbers be affected no matter which path he chooses?

How will the Fox Business moderators play it?

After CNBC’s widely panned debate, Fox Business is looking to use their forum to contrast with the NBC-owned network, and largely come out of their shadow. Moderators Maria Bartiromo and Neal Cavuto told reporters yesterday their focus is going to be on the issues — they want the topics of discussion in the news cycle Wednesday to be focused on the candidates and their answers, not themselves.

With only eight GOP hopefuls on the stage, there will be more time to delve into substantive discussions and vet their economic plans. But in order not to make it a snooze-fest, Mr. Cavuto and Ms. Bartiromo need to make sure there’s a real compare and contrast between the candidates on the issues, without being seen as trying to pick a fight. A tall task indeed.

Can Chris Christie use the undercard to his advantage?

In a blow to his campaign, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was relegated to the undercard debate Tuesday night because of low polling numbers. Up until that point, Mr. Christie had been making headway and gathering some momentum. He had a strong showing at the CNBC debate and then last week a video from a townhall he did in New Hampshire went viral — where he’s sympathetically talking about the pains of addiction and how the U.S. must deal with it.

Can Mr. Christie pull a Carly Fiorina and shine at the undercard — use it to his advantage so he dominates the conversation and then the headlines after to catapult his campaign from the lower-tier to at least mid-tier? Only time will tell.

• Editor’s note: Political reporter Kelly Riddell’s husband, Frank Sadler, was the campaign manager for Republican presidential contender Carly Fiorina.