BANGKOK — One year after deposing a popularly elected government in a bloodless coup, Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha rules this longtime U.S. ally with absolute power but with an ever-expanding list of headaches, from a flat economy and increasing diplomatic isolation to a new humanitarian crisis over newly discovered “death camps” for Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants.
Gen. Prayuth publicly shrugs off international criticism of his May 22, 2014, coup and his junta’s military trials and coercive “attitude-adjustment” confinement for civilian dissidents.
But while supporters point to the end of chaotic and divisive political protests since the general took power, his many critics say he has ripped up Thailand’s constitution and authored an interim charter giving himself absolute power as prime minister “regardless of the legislative, executive or judicial” branches, along with immunity from prosecution.
Gen. Prayuth then empowered Thailand’s U.S.-trained army to officially function as police by seizing property and detaining suspects.
Thailand’s role as a key military and political ally in the region has tempered the Obama administration’s criticisms of the new government, although signs of unhappiness have been mounting as signs of a return to political normalcy recede farther into the future.
“Even though we didn’t like the coup, we train Thailand’s military so that, in the future, when all this settles down, America will still have good relations with Thailand,” said one American who trains Thailand’s paramilitary rangers and special forces. “We are playing the long game because of our competition with China in this region.”
General Prayuth’s “problem,” the adviser said this week, is that “he is not a politician. And he has a lot of loose canons under him. He is a good officer, respected by his troops, but he is now in over his head.”
The Pentagon toned down — but did not cancel — the massive annual Cobra Gold military exercise in Thailand in February, the first since the coup. But Assistant Secretary of State Daniel R. Russel went public with U.S. concerns in a speech at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University in January, shortly before ousted Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was indicted on corruption charges.
Insisting the U.S. did not want to interfere in Thailand’s internal politics, Mr. Russel said, “The fact is, and it’s unfortunate, but our relationship with Thailand has been challenged by the military coup that removed a democratically elected government eight months ago.”
He added, “We are concerned about the significant restraints on freedoms since the coup, including restrictions on speech and on assembly, and I’ve been very straightforward about these concerns. We’re also particularly concerned that the political process doesn’t seem to represent all elements of Thai society.”
Despite a year in office, Gen. Prayuth often appears uncomfortable and testy when journalists question his policies. But he exudes confidence when asked whether his political standing is secure.
“Who would topple me? What half-wit would do anything like that?” he asked reporters recently.
China has also offered a diplomatic and financial lifeline to Gen. Prayuth by expanding relations with Bangkok in the past year, signing a string of military and economic agreements.
Unfinished business
One problem for the general is that there is still unfinished business from the coup he engineered in May 2014.
On Tuesday, former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra posted $900,000 bail and pleaded not guilty to “dereliction of duty” charges resulting from the administration of rice crop subsidies that cost billions of dollars during her 2011-2014 administration. Ms. Yingluck faces other charges including questionable financial compensation to the government-backed “Red Shirts” and other supporters who were injured or killed during pro-democracy protests in 2010.
Gen. Prayuth participated in a 2006 coup that ousted her wealthy brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is now an international fugitive dodging a two-year prison sentence for corruption.
The general’s royalist and right-wing supporters are meanwhile entrenching themselves to prevent any return to power by Ms. Yingluck, Mr. Thaksin or their allies.
Gen. Prayuth and his supporters are believed to be preparing a new constitution restricting future elections to a minority of parliamentary seats under a system dominated by pro-junta appointees. Though they have been repeatedly outvoted during national polls, Gen. Prayuth’s mostly Bangkok-based supporters praise his coup for ending months of street clashes that killed more than 20 people before his putsch.
They hail the general as a stern, sincere leader dedicated to establishing stability, in contrast to Thailand’s squabbling, unpredictable and often ineffectual string of democratically elected civilian leaders.
“I have no doubt Gen. Prayuth had good intentions when he seized administration of the country by force,” Bangkok Post contributing editor Atiya Achakulwisut wrote on May 5. “I believe him when he says that he stepped in to stem the increasing violence and to save lives from being lost.”
But the general’s critics say the political violence before his coup was incited by his own supporters so he could step in as Thailand’s savior.
Thailand’s economy has also proven a disappointment, suffering from sluggish domestic demand and weaker export markets, especially in China and Japan. Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy grew by 3 percent in the first quarter of 2015, below analyst projections, and there is little sign of a major pickup in the remainder for the year.
And Bangkok is under fresh international scrutiny for the general’s handling of the migrant crisis sparked by Muslim ethnic Rohingyas and Bangladeshis who want to land on Thailand’s tourist-friendly beaches during their desperate, often-fatal attempts to cross the Indian Ocean in overcrowded, ill-prepared boats.
Thousands of Muslim men, women and children are escaping racism and stateless status in Buddhist-dominated Myanmar and harsh poverty in Muslim-majority Bangladesh.
They are trying to reach prosperous Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia by transiting Thailand’s land and waters.
Illegal human traffickers in all five countries exploit them for cash or as slaves, frequently holding them hostage during voyages while demanding thousands of dollars extra to continue their passage — or else.
In recent weeks, Thai authorities discovered their gruesome so-called “death camps” in southern Thailand near the Malaysian border.
Hundreds of Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants had been secretly imprisoned in dozens of jungle-based smugglers’ camps, alongside at least 37 graves of those who died from disease or malnutrition or were allegedly murdered because they were unable to pay ransoms.
The new government has also been able to resolve a southern insurgency by minority ethnic Malay-Thai Islamists. On May 14 insurgents unleashed a scattered three-day assault in Yala province with improvised explosives, wounding 22 people and damaging 36 businesses and institutions.
The insurgents’ fight against “Thailand’s colonizers” is to re-establish an annexed 100-year-old Muslim homeland in the southern provinces of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat, where more than 6,000 people have been killed on all sides since 2004.
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