Obesity weighing down U.S. economy, study finds

America’s weight problem is proving a much heftier drag on the economy than previously thought.

If all 12.7 million children with obesity remain overweight as adults, the total societal costs — in health bills, absenteeism at the office and lower productivity — will total $1.1 trillion over the course of their working lives, equivalent to 6.6 percent of the current U.S. GDP, according to new research released this week.

The figure, from a new study from the Washington-based Brookings Institution, is roughly triple the previous estimates of the economic drag from America’s battle with the bulge.

Brookings researcher Matthew Kasman of the think tank’s Center for Social Dynamics and Policy, who presented the findings at a briefing on Tuesday, said that the numbers “are only the tip of the iceberg” of the economic impact of soaring obesity rates.

“Even if it were not morally incumbent upon us to care about the life and health of our fellow citizens, our research indicates that we have a clear economic interest to do so,” he said.

The study, entitled “An In-Depth Look at the Lifetime Economic Costs of Obesity,” ran lifelong cost projections on two hypothetical groups of 1,000 20- to 24-year-olds using modeling software and determined that lifetime costs for the “obese group” averaged $92,235 more than those who had an “average” body mass index (BMI). This projection is “threefold higher” than any study previously conducted, according to analysts.

One of the reasons for the higher estimate is the new model takes into account “absenteeism” and “presenteeism,” which show how often people with obesity miss work and how much less productive they are when present, respectively. One 2010 study suggests that the more overweight the worker is, the bigger the average drop in workplace productivity and the higher the associated health benefit costs.

A 2014 report from the Society for Human Resource Management also detailed the strains that obesity puts on employers. “If current trends continue, more than 50 percent of the U.S. adult population will be obese by 2030,” the report from the trade group said. “The growing number of employees and candidates who are obese or who have obesity risk factors is creating safety and accommodation challenges for employers.”

Another SHRM report found that obesity is a “risk factor” that can cost employers two to three times more than they would expect to pay for a “low-risk” employee in the same age group.

Currently, 34.9 percent of adults in the United States are obese, up from just 10 percent in the 1990s, according to statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which translates into some 78.6 million American adults with a body mass index of 30 or higher. For the young, obesity rates went from 5 percent to 17 percent in the same period.

But William H. Dietz, director of the Redstone Center at George Washington University, said Tuesday that multiple studies have now found a decrease in obesity in children under 5, and others are reporting a “plateau” in the rates for obese adults. Dr. Dietz said he was cautiously optimistic, saying that the numbers were “encouraging” but that the U.S. still hasn’t “turned the corner” on the issue.

Others on the panel were less optimistic. Justin G. Trogdon, associate professor at the UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health, cautioned that “obesity is tricky and very difficult to turn around,” especially for large populations, despite the best efforts of public health officials.

Changes in the marketplace

Anand K. Parekh, deputy assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services, and Dr. Dietz said changes in the marketplace may help to ease the problem. Noting that food companies’ sales of healthy food were growing more rapidly than their sales of less-healthy fare, Dr. Dietz said that the reasons were twofold: “Half of that is market demand, and the other half is ’moving to where the puck is going to be,’ as Wayne Gretzky said.”

Dr. Parekh said that while market demand for healthy food was one part of the equation, “several sectors” have to be involved in order to address the issue of obesity effectively. The HHS official spent a great deal of time discussing the several initiatives conducted by his agency, including first lady Michelle Obama’s high-profile “Let’s Move” initiative, which has raised an “unprecedented” amount of awareness about obesity in the United States.

“What we’re seeing is [also] a consequence of awareness,” Dr. Dietz added, saying that recent trends in healthy food demands and the “plateau” of adult obesity could largely be attributed to the increased focus on the obesity crisis.

Obesity is not just an American problem, nor is it only confined to industrialized nations. Numbers from the World Health Organization reveal that an estimated 115 million people in developing countries worldwide are now considered technically obese.

The costs of obesity also extend outside of the office.

The “social costs” of the condition, including lowered marriage and college acceptance rates, are often “more painful than medical costs because they’re so personalized,” Dr. Dietz said.

Private companies have also had to retool and invest as the average American has grown heavier and wider in recent decades.

A 2004 study also showed that American adult weight gain between 1990 and 2000 cost the airline industry an extra 350 million gallons of jet fuel due to increased payloads. Demand has surged in recent years for extra-size coffins, and stadium seats have been reconfigured to accommodate larger customers.

University of California system president and former Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano told Tuesday’s panel that the findings were “sobering to say the least,” and suggested that public research universities “can and will lead the way on dealing with obesity.”

Brookings’ Mr. Kasman said that the research model’s projections “likely underestimate” the total cost, since they do not take into account such factors as “fuel consumption, military readiness, life insurance and workers’ compensation.”