The election turned out to be a nail-biter, but conservative Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday appeared likely to have pulled in enough last-minute votes to defy the polls and hang on to his job.
An ebullient Mr. Netanyahu quickly declared victory Tuesday evening despite warnings from analysts — as well as from top opposition leader Isaac Herzog — that the postelection politicking over who could construct a majority government was very much undecided.
While a surge during recent weeks had many predicting that Mr. Herzog’s center-left Zionist Union coalition was on the verge of ousting Mr. Netanyahu and his Likud Party, exit polls suggested a near dead heat in the race for seats in the 120-member Knesset.
Analysts generally said a tie represents a win for Mr. Netanyahu in the long run because his Likud Party has a clear path to putting together a coalition of right and far-right parties to secure a Knesset majority.
In the momentous final campaign sprint, Mr. Netanyahu clashed with President Obama over Iran and appealed for conservative votes by renouncing his acceptance of an ultimate independent state for Palestinians. Final pre-election polls gave the Zionist Union a five-seat lead, but exit polls found Likud tying or even besting Mr. Herzog’s party.
“Against all odds, a great victory for the Likud, for the nationalist camp led by the Likud, and for the people of Israel,” the prime minister wrote in a Hebrew message posted on his official Facebook page.
His supporters were even less restrained.
“This is a great victory. It’s almost a miracle,” Likud lawmaker Ofir Akunis told The Associated Press. “For months, everybody attacked the Likud. And today is a beautiful day for the Likud. It sends a message that the people of Israel will decide for themselves.”
Mr. Herzog’s Zionist Union took the election returns in a far more subdued manner but showed no sign of conceding.
“The Likud continues to err,” the party said in a statement. “The right-wing bloc has gotten smaller. Everything is open until the final results are in and we will know which parties passed the electoral threshold and what kind of government we can form. All of the spin and the commentary is too early.”
Stav Shaffir, a leader of the Zionist Union, said the electoral draw amounted to a “clear vote of no confidence in Netanyahu.”
Most exit polls showed the coalition — which was formed heading into the election by Mr. Herzog’s left-leaning Labor Party and former Justice Minister Tzipi Livni’s centrist HaTnuah party — and Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud Party with 27 seats each. At least one exit poll had Likud with a one-seat lead.
But the vote count was not official, and such a close result means the two sides may wrangle and horse-trade for weeks. If Likud and the Zionist Union are within a single seat of each other, the deciding factor will come down to who among Israel’s nearly two dozen smaller parties is willing to back them in forming a government.
Heading into the vote, pundits said that anything short of a five-seat Zionist Union lead most likely would assure victory for Mr. Netanyahu. “There are more parties on the right than the left, and so under most scenarios, even if the Likud comes in second, it would still be more natural for Netanyahu to form a coalition than to have Herzog do it,” according to an analysis circulated early Tuesday by the Washington-based Israel Project.
By Tuesday evening, the group issued an analysis asserting that “Netanyahu is heavily favored to be the next prime minister, but it’s not certain.”
Kahlon as kingmaker
What remains unclear is whether Mr. Netanyahu will be able to persuade anyone other than Israel’s right-wing parties to join his coalition. The key question: whether the centrist Kulanu party will come into the prime minister’s fold.
The party was formed by former Likud member Moshe Kahlon, a popular figure in Israeli politics who broke from Mr. Netanyahu ahead of the election and remained independent through the campaign. Mr. Kahlon is shaping up as the kingmaker for the next government, analysts said.
Mr. Kahlon may side with Mr. Herzog. Both focused their campaigns on domestic issues, specifically on Israel’s high housing costs.
Mr. Netanyahu, meanwhile, appeared to be obsessed with national security. At one point, he accused Mr. Herzog and the Zionist Union of cutting dangerous deals with Israeli-Arab political parties.
Kulanu, projected to win nine or 10 seats, has steered clear of such mudslinging.
Mr. Kahlon now “holds the key. … Without Kahlon/Kulanu, the political left has 57 seats and the political right has 54,” the Israel Project analysis said. Those are short of the 61 seats needed to form a government.
Some observers said they would be shocked if Mr. Netanyahu doesn’t pull through.
“I think, no matter what, Netanyahu is going to be the prime minister,” said Said Arikat, a Washington-based journalist and analyst with Al-Qods, the largest-circulation Palestinian newspaper.
Even if the Zionist Union holds together a coalition of center and left parties, including Arab parties that may have won a considerable number of seats in the Knesset, “they’ll still fall short,” Mr. Arikat said.
He said Mr. Netanyahu, who called the early elections in November, will be weakened because “he’s going to have to wear right-wing colors” in order to make a majority coalition hold.
Israel’s Central Elections Committee reported turnout at 71.8 percent, 4 percentage points higher than the last time voters went to the polls, in 2009.
The idea that Mr. Herzog would give Mr. Netanyahu a run for his money prompted global headlines. Some pundits focused on security policy differences between the candidates and said Mr. Herzog has a measurably more conciliatory posture toward Palestinians.
When it comes to Iran, however, the two are surprisingly close. Mr. Herzog has accused Mr. Netanyahu of fear-mongering and damaging U.S.-Israeli relations with a speech to Congress, but said he agrees with the prime minister on the core premise that the Iran nuclear deal pursued by the Obama administration is dangerous.
⦁ This article is based in part on wire service reports.
• Guy Taylor can be reached at gtaylor@washingtontimes.com.
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