ANALYSIS/OPINION:
Jonathan Papelbon wasn’t brought to Washington to save games.
Drew Storen can do that. He’s got 29 saves this season and 95 over his young career.
No, the harsh and simple reality is that the Nationals traded for Papelbon to save a championship.
We don’t know if Storen can do that — and it’s clear the Nationals aren’t sure he can.
Why else would you take a closer out of a role that he was doing nearly as well as anyone in baseball this season — better than Papelbon.
Papelbon had a 2.12 ERA in the 9th inning this season. Storen had a 1.62 ERA. Papelbon’s WHIP was 0.98 compared to 0.96 for Storen. The OPS against Papelbon — .621; Storen .512.
Yet Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo was willing to take a dramatic gamble to take a guy who has done nothing this season to lose his job and replace him with an outsider.
Why? 2012. 2014. Six postseason appearances, 5 1/3 innings, seven hits, five runs.
If you’re human, you can’t feel good about Storen taking the ball in the ninth inning of a postseason game. It may be unfair, and there may have been all kinds of circumstances beyond Storen’s control in both blown playoff opportunities. But that’s the job.
Not even Storen’s family or closest friends would not offer up prayers or cover their eyes if he entered a postseason game this fall with that game on the line.
Papelbon may wind up doing the same thing. He may come in a game in the ninth inning in October with a one-run lead and blow it. He’s done it before.
But his track record is the opposite of Storen’s limited postseason record. Papelbon had appeared in 16 postseason games from 2005 through 2008 — including the 2007 Boston Red Sox World Series championship — and in 25 innings pitched, had not given up one run. Not one. Zero.
Yes, the last time we saw Papelbon in a playoff game, it was against the Angels in 2009, and he blew a two-run lead in the deciding game as the Red Sox were swept in the American League Division Series.
But all we have heard this season from South Capitol Street when Ian Desmond and other Nationals have struggled is the faith baseball decision makers put in track record. If that is so, then the chance to have Papelbon with the ball in his hands with the game on the line instead of Storen is the “move.”
It wasn’t the move I suggested to Rizzo several weeks ago when I wrote that he should call Reds general manager Walt Jocketty and tell him pick out any prospect in the Nationals organization not named Lucas Giolito for 100 mile-per-hour fireballer Aroldis Chapman.
But Jocketty — rightly so — wasn’t giving up Chapman, under contract through next season, for just one crown jewel. He wanted two of the Nationals best, in a package that could have included Giolito and even Michael Taylor. That was too high a price even for a high roller like me.
The next stop for the Nationals was San Diego closer Craig Kimbrel, who they expressed interest in this winter before Atlanta traded him to the Padres. But first-year general manager A.J. Preller was still hurting from the Rizzo fleecing this winter, acquiring top shortstop prospect Trea Turner and pitcher Joe Ross from San Diego in a three-way deal with Tampa Ba for Steven Souza Jr. He wanted to turn back the clock. Too high a price.
While Papelbon was not nearly as shiny or dramatic as Chapman or Kimbrel, he is just one season removed from a great 2014 season in Philadelphia, with 39 saves. And the price — 2013 fourth-round pick Nick Pivetta — is hardly too high a price.
Papelbon is 34, perhaps with those best days behind him. And Storen’s best days may be ahead of him.
But there is no denying that the Nationals bullpen is better today than it was before Rizzo pulled the trigger on the Papelbon trade. And while Storen, rightly so, may be angry, it is in his best interests to be a standout 8th inning pitcher. He is going into his arbitration years this winter — a process that surely will be complicated now by his new role.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Storen is in another uniform next season. He is making nearly $6 million this year, and would likely see a significant raise in arbitration. If, at the age of 27, he sees himself as a closer — as he should — he will want out. And I doubt if Washington is going to pay $8 million to $10 million for an eighth inning setup man next year.
The trade is a gutsy gamble by Rizzo, who is fearless. But is it a bigger gamble than trusting another game with championship implications on the line to Storen?
• Thom Loverro is co-host of “The Sports Fix,” noon to 2 p.m. daily on ESPN 980 and espn980.com.
• Thom Loverro can be reached at tloverro@washingtontimes.com.
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