Republican voters are still waiting for Gov. Scott Walker and John Kasich to formally launch the presidential campaigns later this month. Barring any surprises, the pair will be last up with their big announcements — which is not especially prudent.
“The early bird doesn’t always get the worm, but it rarely pays to be the last to arrive to the presidential party. Only one such candidate has claimed the nomination since 1972,” says Eric Ostermeier, a University of Minnesota political professor who fearlessly explores the historic trends of complex electoral data.
“Some could argue that being last will give these candidates a more meaningfully timed boost in support and help them stand out from the crowded field as the debate season arrives,” he continues. “So, is there an advantage to being last out of the gate in the race to secure a presidential nomination? If modern political history is a guide, then the answer is no.”
Mr. Ostermeier pored over the last 11 election cycles dating to 1972 and found that only one eventual Democratic or Republican nominee was the last of his party to formally launch a presidential candidacy: Ronald Reagan in 1980. He was the last of 11 Republicans to jump in the race; that group included hopefuls George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, Larry Pressler and Howard Baker (Nov. 1, 1979).
“Slightly more than two months after his announcement, Reagan narrowly lost the Iowa caucuses to Bush, but then cruised to a big victory in New Hampshire and went on to carry more than 40 other states en route to the GOP nomination,” the professor says.
• Jennifer Harper can be reached at jharper@washingtontimes.com.
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