Businessman Donald Trump has risen to the top of the 2016 GOP presidential field in a new poll out Tuesday from Suffolk University/USA Today.
Mr. Trump was the first choice among 17 percent of likely GOP primary/caucus voters in the poll, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 14 percent.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who announced his candidacy Monday, was next at 8 percent, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 6 percent and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 5 percent.
“Trump is making daily headlines in advance of the primary season,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “This has vaulted him to the top of the pack on the backs of conservative voters. But when you expand the electoral pool to include Democrats and independents that potency dissipates.”
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee were at 4 percent apiece and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was at 3 percent. Thirty percent of Republicans said they were undecided.
Mr. Rubio was GOP voters’ top second choice, at about 17 percent, followed by Mr. Bush at 14 percent and Mr. Walker at 12 percent. Combining first and second choices, Mr. Bush led Mr. Trump, 14 percent to 13 percent.
Mr. Trump led Mr. Bush, 17 percent to 11 percent, among self-identified conservative or very conservative likely GOP voters, but among voters of all parties, Mr. Trump’s unfavorable ratings were the highest at 61 percent.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, the 2016 Democratic front-runner, led Mr. Trump by 17 points in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up, 51 percent to 34 percent.
Among the entire sample of respondents, 48 percent said Mr. Trump’s remarks during his announcement speech saying that Mexico sends its criminals to the U.S. matter “a lot” to them in their vote, with 35 percent saying the comments don’t matter and 11 percent saying they matter “a little.”
“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. … They’re sending people that have lots of problems and they’re bringing those problems with us,” Mr. Trump said last month. “They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”
Forty-eight percent said the comments made them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump, 15 percent said more likely, and 32 percent said the comments made no difference.
Mr. Bush was Mrs. Clinton’s closest Republican rival, trailing by 4 points, 46 percent to 42 percent.
Mrs. Clinton led Mr. Rubio by 6 points, 46 percent percent to 40 percent, and she led Mr. Huckabee by about 9 points, 49 percent to 40 percent. She also led Mr. Paul, Mr. Carson, and Mr. Walker by double digits but was below 50 percent in every match-up except against Mr. Trump.
The overall survey of 1,000 adults was conducted July 9-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
The Republican subset of 349 likely primary/caucus voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.25 percent, and the subset of 595 likely GOP primary/caucus voters including first and second choices combined is plus or minus 4.02 percent.
• David Sherfinski can be reached at dsherfinski@washingtontimes.com.
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